USDJPY – Two Weeks of Bullish Activity

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USD/JPY Clings to Bullish Trend Ahead of U.S. 2Q GDP Report

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

Japanese Yen Talking Points:

USD/JPY is under pressure following the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony as President Donald Trump warns that a strong dollar is ‘taking away’ the competitive advantage of the U.S. economy , but the Federal Reserve’s hiking-cycle may continue to foster a long-term bullish outlook for the exchange rate as the central bank appears to be on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

Recent price action in USD/JPY raises the risk for a larger correction as the advance from earlier this month fails to produce a test of the December-high (113.75), and the U.S. president’s criticism surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy may continue to dampen the appeal of the greenback as it undermines the central bank’s ability to independently carry out its dual mandate to foster full-employment and price stability.

With that said, fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. may keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on course to further normalize monetary policy as updates to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report are anticipated to show the economy expanding 4.2% in the second quarter versus the 2.0% rate of growth for first three-months of 2020. Signs of a more robust economy may spark a bullish reaction in the greenback as it encourages the FOMC to deliver four rate-hikes in 2020, but a marked slowdown in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, may generate a mixed reaction as it curbs bets for an extended Fed hiking-cycle.

Keep in mind, the broader outlook for USD/JPY remains constructive for now as both price and the R elative S trength Index (RS I ) preserve the bullish formations from earlier this year, but the reaction to the slew of tweets from President Trump raises the risk for a larger pullback as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of lower highs & lows, while the momentum indicator finally falls back from overbought territory and approaches trendline support.

USD/JPY D aily Chart

USD/JPY falls back towards the former-resistance zone around 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement) after failing to test the December-high (113.75), and a break/close below the state region may open up the downside targets if price and the RSI snap the upward trends from earlier this year. A break of trendline support may spur a move back towards the July-low (110.28) as it highlight a bearish signal, w ith the next downside region of interest coming in around 109.40 (50% retracement) to 110.00 (78.6% expansion).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Japanese Yen

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Anti-bullying

The lesson can be used for Anti-Bullying Week or as a stand-alone lesson.

In this lesson, students will learn about the problem of bullies and how to behave if you are a bystander. Note that there is no emphasis on victims of bullying, because you may have victims in your own class and it is important to be sensitive about this. The aim is not to point the finger at anyone, but instead to discuss and question our beliefs about what bullying is and how it can be dealt with.

Students begin the lesson by discussing their own attitudes towards bullies, bullying and the role of bystanders. Next, they read two texts about bullies and bystanders. Finally, the students return to their original attitudes. They discuss to what extent our attitudes promote or prevent bullying. As a further optional activity, students prepare a poster for an anti-bullying campaign.

Aims:

  • To raise students’ awareness of the role of bystanders
  • To develop students’ spoken fluency and improve reading skills
  • To develop higher-level critical thinking skills by encouraging students to question their beliefs
  • To celebrate Anti-Bullying Week in November

Age/Level:

Secondary (13–15 year olds) CEF level B1 and above

Time:

Materials:

The lesson plan and student worksheets can be downloaded below in PDF format.

Anti-Bullying Week Differentiated Reading Comprehension Activity

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When did Anti-Bullying Week begin?

The first Anti-Bullying week took place in 2004 after a proposal by the Anti-Bullying Alliance to raise awareness of the efforts to stop bullying. It carries a different theme every year, with the 2020 version going with ‘Choose Respect’.

How can this Anti Bullying Week comprehension activity help?

These fact files are a great way to teach your children about general bullying and Anti-Bullying Week. With a choice of three differentiated sheets of comprehension questions to answer, you can easily assess the reading skills and attention level of your students.

Bullish Outlook On USDJPY

USDJPY has been heavily consolidating on the high end of 101.20 zone. You say wedge I say consolidation, but that doesn’t matter. The last two weeks as it looks like shows a massive buying pressure. The pull back on the last bar can be thought of as the first exit of long entries as short term traders look to close out their longs. Fundamentally speaking, this fall was on the first Friday of August so this marks the NFP release. The NFP release was worse than expected also causing the sell off of the dollar. In any case, the strong breakout of the dollar shows we are only seeing the beginning of the next set of bullish movement.

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