Stochastics Divergence Binary Options Trading Strategy

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Contents

Stochastics Divergence Binary Options Trading Strategy

Дивергенция и конвергенция на Форекс. Сигналы стохастика

Здравствуйте, уважаемые читатели блога Форекс трейдера profitov.net. В данной статье рассмотрим сигнал, который считается одним из самых сильных сигналов в техническом анализе — конвергенция и дивергенция стохастика.

Это продолжение статьи о стохастике осцилляторе. Предыдущая часть — Как настроить стохастик осциллятор

Сигналы стохастика

Основных типов сигналов, подаваемых индикатором, два: Перекупленность и перепроданность — первый, конвергенция и дивергенция — второй.

  1. Перекупленность и перепроданность. Когда линии индикатора входят в соответствующую зону, это дает основание полагать, что вероятен скорый разворот цены. Сигнал на продажи поступает, когда линии вошли в зону перекупленности, а затем начали снижение и пересекли уровень перекупленности сверху вниз, при этом красная пунктирная линия %D должна пересечь сплошную %K. Сигнал на покупки поступает, когда индикатор стохастик находится в зоне перепроданности, а затем начал повышаться и пересек уровень перепроданности снизу вверх, при этом пунктирная линия %D должна пересечь сплошную %K.
  2. Дивергенция и конвергенция. Дивергенция стохастика — расхождение. Периодически на графике можно увидеть следующее: цена движется в вверх, а индикатор движется в противоположную сторону. Это выглядит вот так: То есть происходящее на графике и в окне индикатора противоречит друг другу, цена демонстрирует новые максимумы, а индикатор начал снижение. Это и есть дивергенция, расхождение. Дивергенция стохастика является признаком скорого разворота котировок и сигналом на продажи.

Конвергениця — схождение. По сути то же самое, что и дивергенция стохастика, только наоборот. Цена демонстрирует новые минимумы, а показатели индикатора уже начали рост. Вот как это выглядит на графике:

Как и дивергенция, конвергенция является сигналом к развороту текущего тренда.

Однако не стоит сразу входить в рынок, увидев дивергенцию или конвергенцию. Данные сигналы не дают нам четкого понимания, когда именно ожидать разворота, они лишь указывают нам на скорую его высокую вероятность. Поэтому дивергенции и конвергенции стоит использовать в качестве подтверждающих сигналов для своих торговых стратегий, например фигур разворота тренда. Увидели формацию «Голова и плечи«, подтвержденную дивергенцией — открываем ордер по правилам фигуры, это как вариант. Аналогично и с любой другой торговой стратегией.

Вообще, конвергенции тоже часто называют дивергенциями. Это не то, чтобы ошибка, просто так прижилось, что слово дивергенция полюбилось всем больше. Я и сам предпочитаю использовать только это название, в том числе и для обозначения конвергенции. И действительно, принципиальной разницы нет, ведь оба данных сигнала говорят нам о развороте котировок.

Применение стохастика в торговле Бинарными Опционами

Stochastic Oscillator относится к ряду самых известных и информативных технических средств анализа. Его эффективность объясняется повышенной чувствительностью к изменению настроения финансового рынка, поэтому, в отличие от многих запаздывающих индикаторов, стохастический осциллятор генерирует всегда актуальные торговые сигналы. Таким образом, стратегии, построенные на основе Стохастика, позволяют трейдерам бинарных опционов заключать сделки на наиболее выгодных уровнях и завершать профитом высокий процент торговых контрактов. Сегодня мы раскроем секрет данного технического индикатора и определим наиболее эффективный формат его применения.

Характеристики индикатора

Платформа: Metatrader 4
Валютные пары: Любые высоковолатильные
Таймфрейм: Любой
Тип опциона: Call/Put
Экспирация опциона: зависит от таймфрейма
Время торговли: с 10.00 по 20.00 МСК
Рекомендуемый брокер: Binomo

Stochastic Oscillator – принцип работы

Индикатор Stochastic – это осциллятор, в принцип работы которого заложено определение силы изменения стоимости актива, поэтому с его помощью трейдеры могут определять моменты роста или снижения котировок, дивергенции, чрезмерно высокие или низкие уровни цены. Стохастик отображается в «подвале» графика посредством двух линий, движущихся внутри диапазона шкалы от 0 до 100.

Основной сигнал стохастического осциллятора – достижение мувингами уровня перекупленности – выше отметки 70 шкалы, или уровня перепроданности – ниже отметки 30 шкалы, однако в зависимости от применяемого вместе с осциллятором технического средства данные уровни могут устанавливаться на отметках 80 и 20.

Вот так Stochastic выглядит на графике:

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Бинарные опционы и Стохастик – правила торговли

Фактически, торговать по сигналам осциллятора можно на любом таймфрейме графика, однако для бинарных опционов оптимальным вариантом будет таймфрейм М1, позволяющий использовать краткосрочные опционы. Также Stochastic следует применять на высоковолатильных активах и только когда на рынке присутствует ярко выраженный тренд.

Для использования осциллятора достаточно открыть любой сервис «живых» графиков, где Стохастик можно установить с дополнительно настроенными параметрами.

В единичном применении стохастический осциллятор используется с настройками 14/3/1 и уровнями 30/70.

После установки на график индикатора с указанными параметрами следует дождаться торгового сигнала по следующим правилам торговли:

  1. Наблюдаем за работой Стохастика. Если тренд восходящий, ждем выхода мувингов в зону перекупленности над отметкой шкалы 70;
  2. Когда мувинги пересеклись по направлению вниз, заключаем сделку с прогнозом снижения стоимости актива, устанавливая ей срок экспирации от 2 до 5 минут:

Сделку, прогнозирующую рост стоимости актива, следует заключать при появлении показателей обратного формата:

  1. На нисходящем тренде мувинги Стохастика опустились в зону перепроданности под уровень 30;
  2. Мувинги развернулись, а затем пересеклись по направлению вверх;
  3. Заключаем сделку с прогнозом роста стоимости актива, устанавливая срок экспирации от 2 до 5 минут:

Таким образом, от Стохастика можно получать сигналы о развороте рынка, заключая сделки в моменты зарождения новой тенденции движения. При используемом таймфрейме М1 оптимальным периодом экспирации контрактов будет срок до 5-ти минут. А при расчете рисков необходимо придерживаться стандартных правил мани менеджмента – заключать сделки на сумму не больше 5% от объема капитала.

Выводы

Уникальность Stochastic Oscillator в том, что данный индикатор может отлично работать даже без дополнительных средств, выполняющих роль фильтров его сигналов. Но если вы хотите повысить динамику торговли, то изменяя параметры стохастика и комбинируя его с другими осцилляторами, вы сможете максимально исключить ложные торговые сигналы, увеличить количество прибыльных показателей и заключать сделки в наиболее подходящий момент.

Binary Options Strategy: The Stochastic Triple Cross

The Stochastic Oscillator

Everything Comes With A Caveat

I am a student of technical analysis, trader, writer and binary options researcher. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or advisor. This is intended as an educational resource and discussion of stochastic indicator trading strategy. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, trade or otherwise engage trading. I welcome comments and criticisms. Please post those below in the comments section.

What Is Stochastics

Stochastic is an unusual word but the meaning is even more. Stochastic is a word derived from the ancient Greek word stokhastikos which means “take a guess at”. In terms of binary options and market speculation stochastic is an oscillator. Oscillators are visual representations of price movements displayed as charts or histograms below charts of stocks. They (oscillators) are also used with financial indexes, bonds, currencies and futures. These oscillators help technical analysts judge things like market direction and strength. They can be used to pick entry and exit points with relative success, especially when used with a disciplined approach.

Stochastic can also mean randomly determined, a definition that may seem counter to taking a disciplined approach to trading. What stochastic assumes is that a direction can predicted with a certain amount success while the number and types of steps it takes to get there is random. So long as the steps trend in the predicted direction it does not really matter what kind of steps are taken, does? The stochastic indicator uses an equation that compares the opening and closing prices of a traded financial instrument. It produces two lines when graphed, %K and %D. %K is the shorter term line and by nature the more volatile. %D is the longer term line and provides the basis for signal taking.

These two lines can be analyzed many ways and in any time frame. The best way to use stochastic, or any oscillator, is in multiple time frames. I use three in this technique, hence the name Stochastic Triple Cross. The %K line will move back and forth, seemingly at random, crossing over the %D line. The %D line moves much slower. The pair of lines are often compared to a man walking a dog on a leash. The man(%D) is walking where he wants to go but the dog(%K) will bounce back and forth along the way. Sometimes he pulls with the man, sometimes he pulls against him. This is much like a financial market. While trending in one direction it can be pulled or pushed by short term events and news. This noise is like the dog pulling the man.

Stochastic Long Term Analysis

More On Stochastic Stragtegy

My friend Michael Hodges is a great binary options trader. He uses stochastic as part of his daily analysis and has written some great information about how to apply it to binary options trading.

Use Stochastic For Long Term Analysis

The first step is to analyze the primary trend. This is the major trend of the underlying market, not counting the secular trend. Stochastic can be used to determine trend and potential market reversals in several long term time frames. I use charts of weekly closing candlesticks. One good thing about stochastic and market reversals in the primary trend is that you can still get good signals for day trading even if the reversal fails.

The Long Term Trend

To start use a trend line connecting at least three points to determine the primary trend. The trend line I have drawn connects 7 points over 5 years. I know it’s easy to sit here and draw this line now, 5 years later but this trend line could have been anticipated. Drawing the line in 2009 connecting the two peaks present would project the same line it does now. Those peaks are not enough for a confirmed primary trend but it is good enough to start looking for other signs of market bottom or reversal in anticipation. Looking at the stochastic you can see a clear divergence in price occur in early 2009 along with these two peaks. Divergences are great ways to spot bottoms in every time frame and help to confirm the 2009 bottom.

The Analysis

The bounce in early 2009 is the first sign of a new uptrend and a signal to start looking for signals. So, from 2009 forward we will only be taking buy signals until the primary trend is reversed. These signals are confirmed many times and leave this chart in a bull trend. Signals on the shorter time frame charts should only be taken in the same direction as the primary trend.

Signals are generated when the stochastic indicator %K turns up from beneath and crosses above %D. Any time the lines crosses up from beneath during a bull trend a signal is generated. A strong signal occurs when both are pointing up, a weak one when %D is pointing down. As long as %K is above %D the buy signal is valid in a shorter time frame. These signals weaken and end as %K rolls over and then crosses back under %D. On this chart %K is beneath %D following a strong signal. It is in good position to make a new signal but its not quite there yet.

Stochastic Signals On Daily Chart

Stochastic Gives Signals On Daily Charts

  • Once a buy signal is identified on a chart of weekly closing you can move down to charts of daily closing. On this chart look for ideal entry points for longer term trades and other shorter term trading opportunities. Because the long term trend is up only trade up on this chart, the same is true in reverse.

Signals on this chart are taken in the same way and same direction as on the longer term chart. When %K moves below %D and then crosses back over it generates a buy signal. These signals can be taken every time until the long term signal closes. Signals on this chart should only be taken when the lines are crossing. Also like the weekly charts this buy signal stays valid in a shorter time frame until the signal weakens and closes. Bullish signals would be reversed if the primary trend was bearish. A signal would generate is %K crossed below %D.

On this chart the last buy signal on the weekly charts begins the week of December 3. In the weeks prior to December 3rd there is a sharp pullback below the trend line. This pullback is a warning of weakness but it also comes with a weak buy signal on the stochastic. This turned out to be a profitable signal but a risky one none the less. There is another signal the week of December 3rd and then a stronger one the following week. regardless, all three signals are profitable over the span of a few days and weeks. A long term position could have been entered with either signal but short term positions should only be entered on the strong signal. Since then several more signals have been generated and all were profitable.

Stochastic Signal On Hourly Charts

Stochastic Cross Signal On Short Term Charts

When there is a buy or sell signal appearing in the long term and the intermediate term then you can narrow the focus even more. I use charts of hourly closings at this level. This allows for day and day to day signals to appear. Lets first look at the previous chart, starting with the signal on 2/7 and the weak signal on 3/1. The first is a better signal but it wasn’t the first in that series it wasn’t as strong. The market moves up, but slowly over a few days. The next signal, which is much earlier in the series, is sharper. This signal comes with more risk and is harder to catch.

Now lets look at those same signals on a chart of hourly candles. The same rules apply as in the earlier time frames. As long as the primary trend is up only bullish signals are taken. If the primary trend is down only bearish trades. Following the 2/7 signal on the daily charts there are three signals before the final stochastic divergence signals get out and stop trading. There are also two follow up signals on this chart before the next signal on the daily chart occurs.

The weak signal on 3/1 results in 3 hourly signals as well. These signals end with a stochastic divergence and a bearish candle signal. This signals time to stop trading in this time frame, pullback to the next time frame and see what it looks like. The daily chart above looks like the current rally is extended. It’s time to wait for the next signal. The chart above that is extended as well but still bullish and in a good position for signal to form. The current analysis would be to wait for a signal on the daily charts before using the hourly chart any more. At that time the weekly chart should be consulted and then go on from there.

What Are Binary Options

Binary options are a fixed return trading vehicle with growing popularity. They offer traders the chance to speculate financial markets with less risk than other methods. Binary options only have two outcome, all or nothing. You can only lose what you trade. Other types of options, especially futures and currency, have unlimited risk even with stop loss orders in place.

What Are The Best Binary Options Brokers

There is a lot of debate over this question. I don’t think it will ever be fully answered because of just how fast the industry has been changing. It also depends on where you live. There are quite a few brokers I will call “off shore”. This is because they are internationally based, usually in Cyprus or other European country. Of these, there are numerous reputable brokers. All brokers based in Cyprus are required to be CySEC regulated, a standard that is attracting other brokers to the CySEC fold. Some, like Banc De Binary are also regulated by FSA, the Brittish Financial Services Authority.

I have used two offshore brokerages with success and can recommend them to others.

  • 24Option – 24Option is a great platform for day trading with expirations as short as 60 seconds. The also have one touch and boundary options.
  • Anyoption –Anyoption is my favorite off shore broker. Great for traders with a little longer outlook. Expirations range from hourly to end of the day, week and month. They also are the first off shore broker to offer 0-100 options. This type of binary option is the one that most closely resembles U.S. regulated options.
  • NADEX – The best avenue for U.S. based traders. The off shore brokers are still good but until they are compliant and regulated by the CFTC and the SEC there are still risks. NADEX binary options are a little different than European style binary options.

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RSI Binary Options Strategy – How It Works

What is RSI Binary Options Strategy?

How to use RSI Options Strategy?

RSI is represented as a traditional oscillator with a separate window under the price chart. Its ranges from 0 to 100 and the level of 50 usually divides the indicator’s value into two parts. Additional lines come at the level of 70 (overbought) and 30 (oversold), showing strong price movements. The screenshot below shows how the RSi indicator binary options looks like.

RSI settings for Day Trading

Thanks to a simple and reliable mathematical formula, which calculates relation of recent price gain to the latest loss in a given period, binary options traders can adjust the key parameter for the RSI oscillator – the period of calculation. The default period is 14 bars or candlesticks. For example, if the analysis is made on a daily timeframe, then RSI calculates the value in last 14 days. For the hourly chart, RSI with the same period will take into account 14 hours.
Some technical analysts use Fibonacci numbers for the period from 13 bars for fast aggressive trading approach on short-term charts and 21 bars for conservative trading method on longer timeframes like binary options daily strategy. Choosing the most efficient period depends on individual trading strategy, the timeframe and expirations time of binary options.
Another important parameter to modify is the value of oversold/overbought levels. The default and the most widely-used relation is 30/70, while some of the binary options traders prefer a combination of 20/80 to smooth the unnecessary market noise and avoid too many false signals.

Trading signals

The flexible nature of the indicator and multi-purpose application allowed binary options traders to notice several patterns on the RSI indicator window, and develop different trading signals pointing to a high likelihood of current trend’s reversal. There are four main patterns for different applications and scenarios.

Reversal signal

When an asset is trading in a sideways consolidation range without clear direction, binary options traders take advantage of RSI indicators ability to show overbought and oversold levels. Once the oscillator touched the level of 30 or 70, a trading signal occurs and the trend changes the direction. Therefore, traders should consider buying CALL options on a test of the oversold level and PUT options when RSI indicator reached the overbought zone.

Here is an example of RSI indicator range:

Overbought and Oversold Levels

During a strong trend, overbought and oversold levels can be shifted. This technique is used to measure the depth of possible retracements and corrections. For instance, when RSI bounces off the oversold zone and inches up to the level of 50, that threshold is considered as the overbought level, and new put options can be bought from there. For an uptrend, the condition is the same but mirrored. This pattern is also called a bounce by trend. An example below shows how the threshold of 50 acted as the overbought level.

Bearish or Bullish divergence

This signal occurs when the price action does not come in accordance with the RSI performance. For instance, the chart shows higher highs of the rate, while RSI oscillator draws lower highs. That contradiction is called a bearish divergence as it signals a potential reversal of the trend. Bullish divergence happens when the price of an asset charts lower lows but RSI prints higher lows. Bearish and bullish divergences are usually strong and reliable reversal signals.

Swing rejection pattern Example

This is also a reversal signal, and it has four stages of the action.

Best RSI settings for Swing Trading:

  1. RSI drops to oversold zone as the sequence of strong downtrend;
  2. RSI edges back above 30;
  3. RSI falls again without entering the oversold zone;
  4. RSI breaches the recent peak value.

Best Indicators Combination in RSI Binary Options

Stochastic RSI

This is a combination of two oscillators in one window. Besides the RSI, here is used also usual Stochastic oscillator. The Stochastic RSI indicator has similar patterns as described above with the addition of another line. A crossover of two lines is considered as a confirmation trading signal as well. Both indicators parameters default on the chart below, however, traders can try to modify settings in order to get one of the oscillators slower than the other. That would reduce the frequency of trading signals but increase efficiency.

If you like this strategy, you might also be interested in this Triple Top and Triple Bottom

MACD vs RSI

One of the most popular combinations in technical analysis MACD and RSI. The main advantage of such an advanced RSI strategy is that it combines a slow trend indicator MACD with lagging performance and fast RSI leading oscillator. In this case, bearish or bullish divergence on the MACD indicator has to be confirmed or denied by fast RSI. Once a confirmation signal occurred, it’s time to enter the market, buying call or put options depending on the trend direction.

An example is shown in the chart below:

If you like this strategy, you might also be interested in this Reversal Trading

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