Selling (Going Short) Palladium Futures to Profit from a Fall in Palladium Prices

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Palladium Jun ’20 (PAM20)

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    Palladium Outlook 2020: Metal of the Year Still Poised to Grow

    Palladium prices have climbed almost 54 percent over the course of the year. Read on to find out about the 2020 palladium outlook.

    The precious metals sector has had a positive year, with most price growth occurring in the last six months of 2020. However, one metal in particular has fared far better than the rest.

    Palladium has climbed almost 54 percent during the 12 month period, driven by strong demand in the automotive sector as manufacturers increase use of the metal in emissions-reducing catalytic converters. Those conditions have been paired with a reduction in supply.

    The gray metal took the precious metals lead early on, and its gains have allowed it to trend above its cohort metals for the year. Even gold was left in its wake as palladium surpassed the yellow metal a year ago for the first time in 16 years and never looked back. The palladium price hit a record high near the US$2,000 per ounce mark at the end of December of this year.

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    As 2020 comes to a close, many investors are looking ahead to what will happen to palladium in 2020. Here the Investing News Network (INN) details palladium’s stellar price performance this past year and what companies and analysts anticipate for the metal’s year ahead.

    Palladium outlook 2020: Price performance review

    Palladium started January at US$1,254 and quickly gained momentum as supply continued to tighten and demand from gasoline engine automakers increased.

    The important auto sector metal hit its highest point for the first quarter on March 21, when it broke the US$1,610 point; that was the first of a series of record highs for palladium in 2020.

    The bull movement was attributed to concerns that the metal’s supply deficit would be deepened by a potential output cut from the world’s second largest producer of palladium, Russia.

    While some analysts believed palladium’s rise would be corrected early in the year, the metal went on to continue its rally, save for two brief periods in Q2.

    At the onset of the three month session, the metal had slipped from the US$1,600 range to US$1,344. Palladium’s lowest point for the quarter came on May 9, when the metal was trading for US$1,282, but this was still higher than its price point at the start of the year.

    According to a FocusEconomics report from March, prices appeared to be running ahead of fundamentals, prompting analysts polled by the firm to predict a correction.

    “Softer global economic momentum could also feed into lower demand for the metal. However, palladium prices should remain elevated by historical standards, supported by the ongoing supply deficit, the shift away from diesel vehicles and tighter environmental regulations,” the report notes.

    After the May value slip, prices steadily ticked higher, arriving back in the US$1,600 range by mid-July.

    Supply and demand dynamics continued to be the main motivator for prices, while the other precious metals fought headwinds from a strong US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions.

    In a market report from May, Metals Focus, a precious metals consultancy group, estimated a supply deficit of 574,000 ounces for 2020.

    Speaking to INN, Vice President of Research at CPM Group Rohit Savant noted that there was growth in the palladium investment sector in 2020, which was further compounded by supply and demand fundamentals in the space.

    “Tight market conditions driven to a very large extent by strong investor interest in the metal was the primary factor driving palladium prices to record highs over the course of 2020,” he said.

    “This strong investor interest has been supported by strong fabrication demand fundamentals for the metal, as well as the ongoing strength in palladium prices, which is preventing most palladium investors from selling their inventory and has been attracting new buyers that are willing to chase prices higher in order to add metal to their portfolios.”

    The latter half of 2020 saw the most significant growth for the gray metal, which started H2 at US$1,565.

    When INN spoke with Jim Gallagher, president and CEO of North American Palladium, at the Denver Gold Forum in late September, the head of the Canadian miner said he believed market constraints would drive prices even higher.

    “It’s a tight market moving forward for the next couple of years,” he commented. “So potentially even though we set records last week at an over US$1,600 closing price … we expect that that price is going to continue to go up, perhaps for the next two years.”

    North American Palladium has since been taken over by Impala Platinum (OTC Pink:IMPUY,JSE:IMP) in a C$1 billion deal.

    Supply constraints and increasingly rigid environmental standards around car emissions in Europe and China were credited with influencing the price growth, as 80 percent of all produced palladium is used in catalytic converters.

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    For the last quarter of 2020 palladium has again rocketed higher, with its lowest point coming at the beginning of October: US$1,662.

    A milestone price point occurred for the metal on November 1, when it breached US$1,800. Palladium’s last record for 2020 came on December 13, when the metal hit its all-time high of US$1,987. Since the beginning of H2, the price of palladium has climbed 24 percent.

    Palladium outlook 2020: More growth expected

    Palladium’s record year came as a surprise to many analysts INN spoke to over the course of 2020. In November at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Lobo Tiggre, CEO of Louis James LLC, said that he doesn’t see the price continuing its bull trend.

    “Even most of the reasonable palladium bulls that I know, they don’t imagine that prices will stay there forever. I was surprised when it hit the same price as gold and I was more surprised that it stayed up.”

    Tiggre, who is also the founder of Independent Speculator, thinks it may be too late for investors to try and benefit from palladium’s movement, especially since he doesn’t see supply constraints supporting higher prices for a prolonged period.

    “I’m a speculator; I’m not a wild gambler,” he said. “So since I can’t convince myself that it has to go higher, I’d rather miss that boat than jump on the bandwagon now and find out. I’m the guy who is the last one to have bought, and when the music stops I’m standing there holding the bag.”

    As the price continues to reach new highs, there has been some speculation that gasoline car manufacturers could opt to switch the expensive metal for its cheaper sister metal platinum.

    However, this is a concept Tiggre said is more complicated than simply interchanging one for the other.

    Sector veteran Rick Rule of Sprott (TSX:SII) thinks palladium can hold onto its gains if certain factors don’t hinder the market.

    “As long as the economy holds together we think palladium will do well,” Rule told INN in New Orleans.

    “There were a lot of fabrication technologies that were put in place when palladium was cheaper that give it, in the near term, a structural advantage over platinum. And of course, gasoline engine sales are doing better than diesel engine sales and palladium is more efficient in catalytic converters for gasoline, so as long as we don’t go into a global recession I think the palladium markets are very, very intact.”

    CPM Group’s Savant noted that a global economic slowdown could potentially impact the fabrication and industrial uses of the gray metal, which would act as a headwind to price growth.

    While a potential economic slowing is top of mind for market watchers and investors, junior explorer New Age Metals (TSXV:NAM,OTC Pink:NMTLF), which is focused on developing its platinum-group metals asset near Sudbury, Ontario, pointed out that the high price point has kept some investors away.

    “The downside to the significant price increase in palladium is that we have received very little interest from equity investors,” said Harry Barr, president, CEO and chairman at the company. “The lack of new equity investors is also apparent in the gold and silver equities even though in the late summer/fall 2020 these metals did rally in price.”

    Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp expects a price correction in the near term, one that may be dramatic.

    “I didn’t think (palladium) was going to US$1,800; I didn’t think it was going to go to US$1,200. It’s just gone out the roof,” Fulp told INN in November. “When metals go exponential, or any financial market of any kind when prices go exponential, they will go parabolic and come right back down the other side. So I wouldn’t be buying palladium right now, I would be buying platinum.”

    However, Savant sees a steady growth trend when it comes to palladium over the next 12 months.

    “Palladium prices are expected to continue rising over the course of 2020, albeit at a slower pace than seen over the past few years,” he said via email. “Investors are the primary drivers of palladium prices and they are unlikely to sell their holdings unless there is a meaningful deterioration in the supply and fabrication demand fundamentals. This is not expected to occur in 2020. That said, investors are less likely to aggressively chase palladium prices higher in 2020.”

    Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

    Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    Editorial Disclosure: New Age Metals is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.

    The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

    Selling (Going Short) Palladium Futures to Profit from a Fall in Palladium Prices

    Follow PALLADIUM Following PALLADIUM Unfollow PALLADIUM

    PALLADIUM Chart

    Ideas

    Demand will resume soon which means price will go up. Exactly when is hard to say, but it is sound logic. Palladium is needed for your car, when factories open up again, it is obvious what is going to happen. We have touched the first Fib. level and now appear to be going sideways. We could still drop to the Golden ratio but this could be an accumulation phase.

    Trading in middle of 1 – 1/2 Gann structure, a bullish scythe can be observed however it doesn’t look that strong, do divergences continue through price lines? just curious. Clear fractal can be observed with these bearish divergences. Best to go long in this scenario, major precious metals will see large increases with global uncertainty rising.

    Breaking the support zone, and a structure wave B seems to be ready. Not crystal clear, but maybe ready. So I expect to see a five-wave falling and the acceleration come. There is a huge expectation because a would like to see a new low somewhere 1500, but I could compromise in a double bottom.

    Palladium trended really well from May 2020 to February 2020 and was set to reach the $3,000 round number but the current pandemic had other plans for the economy. We soon saw a sharp decline in price, falling 47% in under 3 weeks, wiping out 6 months of gains in a fraction of the time. We are now seeing a different kind of behaviour in this commodity and price.

    Thank you China – and no… not for the Coronavirus I’m talking about Palladium… The main reason why Palladium is flying and will continue to do so, is all thanks to regulations taking place in China. We are seeing major industrial demand driven by the expectations that there’ll be stricter environmental regulations and standards in China. In fact, they.

    Rejection 2400 Level also 61.80% Fib I see more downside on this

    TVC:PALLADIUM #Palladium is making a distribution pattern on daily. Let’s see if this trade is possible.

    Palladium has rallied strongly since a swift A wave down and I reckon this could be shaping up for a classic zigzag as this count suggests. Palladium has a decent correlation with the Nasdaq so if this count turns out to be right then we might also expect a good showing the US equities once again some time soon.

    As shown in the chart, ive been talking about a palladium bubble for a very long time now. Now we can see the result of investor greed and momentum investing gone sour. At section #1, the BIG parabolic move indicating we are close to the top. #2, the loss of momentum, smart money has sold into the strength, the new high is created by greedy investors. #3 A.

    See the idea below. as predicted this bubble collapse is a normal and healthy correction to the parabolic increase. Look for a good buying opportunity within the next year.

    Was that a top for Palladium? This count would suggest so.

    Palladium has seen a strong rise since August 2020 with nice trends ranging from 18% to 38% following periods of pullbacks. This has been an overall growth of 106% over a period of 7 months. As with every trend, there will be pullbacks along the way and we are experiencing another one at the moment. When price pulls back, we always want to look for areas of.

    waiting for support

    Palladium is proving to be resilient as it is finding strength after a sharp decline last week. The $2,500 round number has come to the rescue for the buyers and it is acting as a strong level of support for price. In January 2020, this round number was acting as resistance and forced price to pull back and now that resistance level has turned to support. The.

    All metals corrected, palladium 14% correction keep optimism high

    Hi, today we are going to talk about PALLADIUM and its current landscape. We can observe at this timeframe, a confluence of technical factors, that entail a setup which might drive this asset to a new movement. The details of our analysis are highlighted in the chart above. Want to know more about our trades and ideas? Join the Traders Heaven today. Thank you.

    Commodities Corner

    Myra P. Saefong

    Year to date, palladium’s up 36%, while rhodium prices have more than doubled

    Palladium futures have gained 35% year to date

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    Palladium notched fresh records this week, but analysts warn that COVID-19’s impact on the global economy warrants caution for traders looking to participate in the rally for the metal, or those eyeing prospects for sister metals rhodium and platinum.

    “Palladium is off to another scorching start in 2020,” said Ed Egilinsky, managing director and head of alternative investments at Direxion. “However, the short-term negative economic impact already being felt due to the coronavirus might filter down to a slowing in auto sales.”

    The most-active March futures contract for palladium US:PAH20 settled at a record $2,605.40 an ounce on Friday, based on data going back to early November 1984, according to FactSet data. Prices trade around 36% higher so far this year.

    Other metals within the platinum group include platinum and rhodium. Platinum, which settled at $976.10 on Friday, has climbed by a modest 0.2% year to date. Spot prices for rhodium, meanwhile, have more than doubled from the end of last year to stand at $12,700 an ounce Friday, according to data from specialty-chemicals company Johnson Matthey.

    Given the price differences between the metals, talk of a switch to the use of platinum, instead of palladium, for catalytic converters in motor vehicles, which help control exhaust emissions, has grown.

    “Palladium’s price increase is surprising, but the divergence between platinum and palladium prices is particularly surprising,” said Alissa Corcoran, analyst and director of research at Kopernik Global Investors. “They are both very scarce metals and often mined from the same deposits, and they are substitutes for each other.”

    Egilinsky, however, said a substitution using platinum in place of palladium could take some time to play out, possibility being an 12- to 24-month “process to enact.”

    Sister metal rhodium, on the other hand, has benefitted from recent weakness in platinum prices, which posted a decline in January.

    Rhodium doesn’t appear to have a natural substitute, and it’s a byproduct of platinum, so the decline in platinum prices, combined with higher output production costs, has led to a reduction in rhodium supply, said Egilinsky. That has combined with a “somewhat less liquid trading market” to create a “parabolic upward move over the last few years” for the metal.

    Rhodium may still move higher, but “based on its previous volatile history, prices eventually could fall hard,” he warned.

    For now, the economic impact of coronavirus hasn’t put any significant pressure on prices for the platinum group metals.

    Tight supplies for palladium have continued to feed its price rally. A February report from Johnson Matthey estimated that the supply deficit for the metal widened to nearly 1.2 million ounces last year and is expected to deepen this year.

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    “Right now the coronavirus is being viewed as a short term global economic impact, so it hasn’t negatively influenced palladium prices as of yet,” said Egilinsky. “The narrative might change if coronavirus isn’t contained over the next few months as it might lead to prolonged negative impact on car sales in 2020.”

    The potential fallout from the coronavirus “could lead to revising global GDP numbers lower, for at least the first part of the year,” he said. That could “result in palladium prices topping out around these current levels,” and lead to a correction of 10% to 20% in the short term.

    Platinum prices, meanwhile, have garnered some haven support on the back of the economic worries tied to COVID-19, which is a novel coronavirus that was first diagnosed in humans in December in Wuhan, China.

    But if the virus is successfully contained, there may a gradual turnaround in global growth that would “stunt platinum’s safe-haven demand and lower its price,” Alexander Kozul-Wright, commodities economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a recent note.

    He also expects demand for platinum in China’s jewelry sector to continue its decline, noting that “fashion-conscious consumers have shied away” from platinum in favor of lower carat gold.

    Still, Kozul-Wright sees a “limit to the scale of price losses” with stricter emissions standards in China and India boosting demand for platinum in heavy-duty vehicles, and the risk of a decline in South African platinum supplies, which have suffered in the wake of electricity supply issues.

    Capital Economics forecasts a fall in platinum prices to $800 by the end of the year, from current levels around $980, he said.

    Which stock markets and other asset trading exchanges are closed on Good Friday? Easter Monday?

    It won’t be your typical Easter, or Passover, on Wall Street, in the era of COVID-19, the deadly pandemic that has forced a global shutdown of businesses and caused governments to impose social-distancing measures to curb the spread of the disease.

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