Cryptocurrency Forecast The Bulls Are Back But Can It Last

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Bitcoin Opinion: The Bulls Are Back In Town

On my last piece during the previous week, I analysed how the northern hemisphere summer time is usually kind on Bitcoin. Of course there was the 2020 exception, when the entire market was bearish for almost 2 years in a row, but let’s ignore that for now. If we enter a dry season there is nothing to be done except patiently wait for the mercy of institutional money.

For obvious reasons, today we tell a different story.

One month after the June mini-bull run, we’re finally starting to see some positive action. New, fresh money is coming into bitcoin and that has given the market a nice pump back into the USD 7400 price level.

Do you know what that means?

–this article shouldn’t be taken as financial advisement as it represents my personal opinion and views. I have savings invested in cryptocurrency so take whatever I write with a grain of salt. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose and always read as much as possible about a project before investing. Never forget: with great power, comes great responsibility. Being your own bank means you’re always responsible for your own money—

Bitcoin Gone Wild

When the market turns around there are many signs you can check for, in order to have funds available to put into cryptocurrency. I won’t go into much detail about historical prices, as I’ve covered that already, but it’s worth mentioning again the two key factors for success:

Timing, or better yet, buying/selling at the right time; Sentiment, as you need to understand market behavior in order to predict price movements.

If you master both, then you’ll have a fair chance at beating the market.

However, make the correct prediction at the wrong time, and it can cost you your hard-earned cash. Remember what almost happened to Michael Burry? He was absolutely correct when predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, except he thought it would start sooner than what it did.

That tiny miscalculation almost cost him his fortune.

Now, back to what matters.

What’s going on with Bitcoin’s price?

On July 17th, at its lowest, volume was around USD 4,242 Billion. Fast-forward a couple of hours and around USD 1 Billion was added to the market.

This drove Bitcoin prices to rise around 8%, from USD 6700 to USD 7300.

If you’re wondering what or who may have caused this, I really cannot be of much help. Most likely, we can blame the usual culprit: smart-money, so institutional investors, large hedge funds, banks, etc.

When we check some professional traders and investors, like Alessio Rastani, Mati Greenspan or Daniel Jeffries, we can see not only were they hedging in favour of Bitcoin, but also expecting a price movement like the one that just happened.

I’ll do my best to explain how this price action was predicted and how can you leverage that knowledge for the next bull-run.

Never follow dumb-money

One of the most widely accepted facts is that, usually, traditional media channels provide completely inaccurate cryptocurrency market predictions. The reason being, their “experts” panels are generally composed by people who do not understand cryptocurrencies.

Sure, I really do not doubt for a second many of these panelists do possess a degree of financial knowledge it would put me in a corner. Except, if you use that knowledge and try to apply it to different fields, like cryptocurrency, your predictions an analysis might not be as accurate as you might think.

Ignoring the underlying technology mechanics, when comparing traditional financial markets vs modern cryptocurrency markets, is a problem too few people care about.

Mixing ignorance with power is a great recipe for disaster.

If you are one of those folk who usually listen to CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, etc you might end up having a bad time, when it comes to advise on how to invest in Bitcoin.

A key rule for any successful crypto-trader or investor is to never listen to the news.

Partnerships are usually bull-crap (look at the many examples of the recent past), most expert analysis is paid by companies, success is measured by funds raised and not product development, usefulness, nor market reach and, last but not least, traditional news-sites usually need to please a greater reach of readers, meaning, it’s much easier to have click-bait news than actual real news.

Like: “How Bitcoin Is Just A Scam”

Want another example of why you shouldn’t follow media advice?

Shorting Bitcoin: best advice ever

The image above, taken from one of Alessio’s latest youtube analysis, shows the volume of CBOE’s futures contracts. As you can see, dumb-money was betting heavily on shorting Bitcoin at the USD 4500 level (non-commercials).

I’m pretty sure the recent news explaining and why you should be shorting bitcoin had a little influence on this outcome.

Should you follow the herd, or bet against it? You already know the answer.

Enjoy the epic short-squeeze! This is, when short traders get destroyed by large quantities of fresh money coming into the market, pushing prices back up.

Another point that I would like to bring to your attention, is the importance of the time-axis.

If we were looking for a trigger that could potentially help us learn when a big price movement was about to happen, a strategy that could be of use is the LT indicator.

I’m not saying this technique is always accurate – nothing is in fact – but it can let us know, with a high degree of certainty, when a shift is about to happen.

The LT analysis takes into account price walls and when they’re likely to be met, meaning, given a certain amount of time, the pressure of either sell or buy orders will push price downwards or upwards and the LT indicator measures when both walls meet.

What happened a few days ago was clearly a massive price wall pushing prices forward while eating away all bitcoin shorts.

In a sense, when buy orders pressure price upwards whoever is shorting bitcoin gets burned.

Is it so surprising the impressive 8% gains we saw last week?

I really don’t think so.

If you’re low on memory and don’t remember what happened, during December last year most leading traders and investors were warning us for an upcoming correction we’re currently experiencing. Just like with any other good bubble, sometimes it needs to burst so that a newer and more massive bubble can form.

Right now it feels like the market is gathering resources like people, knowledge and capital; soon the work of the past few months will bear fruit and new implementations like the Lightning Network, Segwit, side-chains and decentralized exchanges will help pushing prices higher up.

I believe this is just the beginning.

Keep in mind this bull-run won’t likely be hassle-free; there will be opportunities to make some small purchases, here and there, in the hopes price will continue to raise past the USD 20k level.

Historically, ups and downs are what keeps the market alive and how you can make some money, so take into consideration as many different analysis and indicators as possible.

In regards to Alessio’s LT analysis, when we see trading parameters on both the price and time axis come together at the same moment, we are looking at the highest probability, lowest risk trade setups in the marketplace.

This happens because there are both price and time walls which will collide in an epic pull/push of prices.

As you can see above, the date ranges are accurate with what happened, as the major price push was on the 17th July.

What else drives Bitcoin prices?

If you want to better understand the range of possibilities that can lead to wide price movements, it’s crucial you have an understanding of big players that can drive adoption forward. One of these players is, of course, BlackRock.

Being the world’s largest asset management firm, surely any allocation BlackRock makes into cryptocurrency will most likely be tied to bitcoin (via a bitcoin ETF, for example?). This will, in turn, bring not only institutional investors, but probably an insane amount of dumb-money as I wouldn’t expect anything less than a massive hype generated by media daily updates, pushing people to buy more bitcoin – like we saw in December, remember?

The hypothesis is as follows: smart-money attracts dumb-money. If BlackRock does end-up creating a Bitcoin ETF I would expect a massive rally to take place.

Will Bitcoin suffer the same fate as gold?

Hopefully! That doesn’t seem that bad at all!

Now, if we want to look from a different angle and forget about money for a second, to focus on regulation and political pressure, we can see the world is currently divided. In one side, we have people like Andreas Antonopolous talking to the Senate, explaining how cryptocurrency can make the world a better, fairer place; while in the other we have traditional lobbyists, who put their donors’ interests before people’s.

Of course my opinion is 100% biased, I’m much more of a libertarian than someone who loves control. A little bit of uncertainty is much better than blindly following rules for the sake of following rules.

Now, does it mean I shouldn’t listen to people who disagree with me?

Well, it depends on the arguments. During one of the SEC’s latest hearings this guy, Mr. Brad Sherman, was extremely bearish on bitcoin, extrapolating the same-old boring conclusions that crypto is just for criminals and people who want to evade taxes.

Right. I thought we were pass that?

Interestingly enough, SunnyDecree published on one of his latest videos how this guy, a US Senator, despite heavily criticizing bitcoin – the safest currency out there – is actually accepting donations from Allied Wallet, a digital online payments business, kind of Bitcoin’s nemesis.

Want to know what the best part is?

These guys got fined a couple of years ago for money laundering.

Double-standards much, Mr. Sherman!

What will happen to Bitcoin’s price momentum?

We could think bad news like the above, or news sites reporting idiotic things like “Bitcoin is dead”, could be catalysts for people running away from cryptocurrencies.

Of course smart-money doesn’t care about trends – because it usually sets them – and dumb-money usually follows the wrong trend anyways.

What do I think it will happen? Well, right now, momentum keeps building and the good news do not stop there:

I wouldn’t expect Bitcoin price to go down, especially when the RSI being oversold doesn’t start the usual correction.

My conclusion is that Bitcoin will keep going for a few days or until we see less green volume, sustaining the latest positive price action.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

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Analyst Predicts What the Future Holds for Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies Market

Cryptocurrencies have been one of the hottest topics throughout this year, with Bitcoin repeatedly making global headlines with its record-breaking performance. Sputnik discussed the prospects of the digital currency with Roman Tkachuk, a senior analyst with investment company Alpari.

Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, skyrocketed in 2020, from below $1,000 in the beginning of the year to the historic milestone of $20,000 earlier in December.

The cryptocurrency market has recently experienced a string of losses, culminating in a nosedive on December 22, with Bitcoin falling below $11,000. After the drastic downturn, Bitcoin recovered and has been hovering between $13,000 and $16,000 in recent days.

Sputnik: Today, as Bitcoin is shattering record after record, what is your forecast for 2020?

Tkachuk: Bitcoin is a new tool, so conventional analytical instruments cannot always be applied to it. The global trend for its growth remains, including the futures prices on the Chicago exchange. In general, market players expect the upward trend to continue.

Sputnik: How can you explain the losses in the price of Bitcoin?

Tkachuk: High volatility is normal for new financial instruments. A dramatic increase in price is usually followed by a major drop.

Investors are very sensitive to the news and carefully react to any changes. In addition, until this month, Bitcoin had traded only on electronic exchanges, which are less stable than traditional exchanges.

Sputnik: While the popularity of Bitcoin is an accomplished fact, how could you comment on other cryptocurrencies?

Tkachuk: Each blockchain technology and each cryptocurrency has their own feature. For example, the Ethereum platform has smart contacts. Dash is anonymous while Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash have an increased block size.

The popularity of a cryptocurrency depends on how investors see the prospects of its technology. It is noteworthy that recently Bitcoin Cash, Dash and Monero have shown major growth.

Sputnik: What do you think about the suggestion, for example, by Saxo Bank analyst Kay Van-Petersen that Bitcoin’s growth could be taken down by Russia and China?

Tkachuk: Russia’s share in global cryptocurrency trading is small and the influence of our country [on the market] is insignificant. But China is a trendsetter. Bitcoin dropped in September when the Chinese regulator was tightening the screws in the cryptocurrencies market.

Sputnik: The Russia government has discussed the idea to introduce the so-called “CryptoRuble,” which would be the only legal digital currency in Russia and would be taxed just like the Russian ruble. What prospects would such a currency have?

Tkachuk: The two main features of any cryptocurrency is the absence of regulation and anonymity. The CryptoRuble would have neither and so it would face difficulties competing for investors with other cryptocurrencies.

If the Russian government strictly regulates the market there will be a shadow market. Transactions in cryptocurrencies are almost impossible to trace.

Sputnik: Bitcoin has a number of competitors, some of which are backed by oil and gold. What are the advantages of such cryptocurrencies?

Tkachuk: I think that cryptocurrencies backed by physical commodities will not be very popular. We can see this on such examples as Bilur, which is backed to oil and GoldMint [backed by gold].

If you want to place a bet on the growth of oil or gold – bet directly on oil or gold. Due to the same reason, buying bitcoins is better than buying Bitcoin futures.

Sputnik: Is the dramatic increase in the popularity of cryptocurrencies already affecting traditional currencies or maybe its influence could in the future?

Tkachuk: Today, in terms of its size, the cryptocurrencies market cannot be compared to the traditional financial market. For example, Bitcoin’s market cap is hundreds of times less than the money stock in the United States, the American stock market’s cap or American GDP.

In the future, blockchain could take its share in the payment systems market, but will not completely replace Visa, MasterCard and PayPal. In some situations, a regulator is important and the risks of blockchain are not well assessed. In general, the future of cryptocurrencies will depend on the policy of global regulators.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the position of Sputnik.

The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

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Market Snapshot

Sue Chang

Oppenheimer’s Wald: The worst of the selloff is behind the market

The bulls are back in the stock market again.

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And just like that, the bulls came charging back.

All it took was one stellar economic data point to change the stock market’s mood and punt the indexes higher. But even before the robust jobs numbers exorcised the demons, strategists had started to predict that the market is gearing up for a comeback given the depth of the recent selloff.

“We expect a bear market rally to develop over the coming weeks, and we expect a new bull market to develop over the coming months to quarters,” said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Wald believes the recent spate of weakness is the cyclical bear market waking up in the midst of a secular bull market and suggested that the selling pressure will soon work itself out.

“On average, the index drops 20% over an 8-month period and retraces 50% of the prior advance,” he said. “This is why we believe the S&P 500 has endured the bulk of the magnitude and now requires time to base.”

The strategist forecast the S&P 500 to trade in a range of 2,375 to 2,700 for 2020.

The stock market closed out the first week of 2020 on a positive note, with the S&P 500 SPX, +1.44% rising 1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.22% climbing 1.6% and the Nasdaq COMP, +0.77% rallying 2.3%, thanks to the strong jobs data which assuaged concerns of a slowdown in the U.S. economy and laid to rest fears about a looming recession.

Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citi, who trimmed his 2020 target for the S&P 500 to 2,850 from 3,000, believes this is a good time to jump back into the market, in part given that stocks have the potential to rise 16% over the next 12 months on valuations alone.

Since the S&P 500’s record high in September, the large-cap index has tumbled double digits, making stocks much more affordable.

“Nothing is guaranteed, but the data suggest that we should be buying into current weakness,” he said.

Aside from affordability, there are other encouraging signs, according to strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The bank’s Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 1.8, indicating “extreme bear,” triggering a buy signal for risky assets like stocks for the first time since June 2020 when markets were battered by Brexit headlines.

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Historically, global stocks rose 6.1% in the three months following each of the buy signals triggered going back to 2000.

The next two critical signs to watch for are “policy panic” and a deterioration in profit expectations from the current 7.5% growth.

Tommy Ricketts, investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, characterized policy panic as when central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, are unnerved enough by the financial markets to abandon their hawkish stance.

“Markets require a dovish pause at the very least,” he said.

That is a bold call to make in light of the blowout jobs report which has again raised expectations for the central bank to follow through on its interest-rate-hike agenda even as Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated Friday that the Fed will remain flexible.

Meanwhile, Ricketts thinks earnings outlooks still remain too lofty.

“We expect profit expectations to reset to 0-5% for 2020 driven by weak Asian exports, yield curve inversion, contracting monetary supply,” he said.

For the fourth quarter, analysts have lowered their S&P 500 earnings estimate by 3.8% to $40.93 a share, significantly above the average cut of 3.1% over the past five years, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to start trickling in next week with Bed, Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY, -2.10% , Target Corp. TGT, -0.41% , Lennar Corp. LEN, +3.32% , and KB Home KBH, +2.26% in the spotlight.

On the economic front, investors will have a slew of data to digest including the December ISM nonmanufacturing index, weekly jobless claims and the consumer price index.

-—Chris Matthews contributed to this report

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What will be the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple in May 2020

Forecast for bitcoin, ether and ripple for May implies the growth and interest of investors in investments in cryptocurrencies. The market begins to recover. Let’s talk about the next levels to be overcome by digital currencies in May.

May promises great prospects for the cryptocurrency market. Most likely, most digital assets will be in high demand, and market capitalization will exceed $ 500 billion.

Let’s take a closer look at the current situation and try to give a forecast for the TOP-3 cryptocurrencies for May 2020.

What has changed in the cryptocurrency market since last year?

It is worth starting with the fact that the opinions of analysts regarding the cryptocurrency market are divided. One part draws a complete analogy with the foreign exchange and stock markets, while the other part believes that laws and rules applied at traditional sites do not apply to it.

Time does not stand still, everything changes, and we believe that the situation on the cryptocurrency market has also changed. Compared to the second quarter of 2020, the dynamics of the digital assets picture has become more similar to the usual market one – clear levels of support and resistance, as well as psychological levels can already be distinguished.

This means that for the forecast of cryptocurrencies, you can use the third postulate of technical analysis, which states that the market is logical, and history repeats itself. In addition, do not forget the seasonal factor, whose influence on the markets has not yet been canceled.

To begin with, take a look at the capitalization of the digital market in May last year, as well as the change in the price of the top three cryptocurrencies from 1.05.17/31.05.17/XNUMX to XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX:

  • Bitcoin price (BTC) – growth from 1348 to 2175 dollars;
  • ether price (ETH) – increase from 79 to 231 dollars;
  • Ripple price (XRP) – growth from 0,05 to 0,2;
  • market capitalization – growth from 36,9 billion to 78,2 billion dollars.

That is, the BTC rate grew by 60%, and the other two cryptocurrencies and market capitalization grew from 2 to 4 times.

Accordingly, in May 2020, given the third postulate of technical analysis, you can count on the growth of cryptocurrencies, although on a much more modest scale.

Previously, the sharp rise in prices for cryptocurrencies was unreasonable, almost “out of the blue”, but now for the repetition of such dynamics very good reasons are needed.

Bitcoin forecast for May 2020

The last seven days of April, the bulls unsuccessfully tested the resistance level of $ 9500, as a result of which there was a corrective pullback, and in early May the bitcoin exchange rate fluctuated around the psychological level of $ 9000 per BTC.

In May, the most prominent representatives of the bitcoin community will hold at conferences, but you should not expect any important statements from them, so we can assume the absence of sharp jerks in BTC / USD and a smooth movement upward at the indicated levels.

Bitcoin Forecast and Price in May

We believe that in the near future the bulls will still be able to push through the resistance level of 9500, after which Bitcoin will have three growth goals in May – $ 10, $ 400 and $ 11. After overcoming each goal, this level will become a support, to which, subsequently, a decrease in the framework of technical correction is likely.

Ethereum Forecast for May 2020

On May 3 and 13, exhibitions dedicated to the Ethereum blockchain will take place, from which we also do not expect any surprises, the news background also favors the second largest cryptocurrency.

Forecast and Price for Airtime in May

From the point of view of technical analysis, after unsuccessfully testing the psychological level of $ 700 per ETH, the price rolls back to the key support level of $ 630.

We assume that after the rollback is completed, psychological level 700 will be overcome, opening the way for the ETH / USD pair to May targets at levels of $ 800 and $ 880. Some consolidation is possible. Ethereum prices at around 750.

Ripple Forecast for May 2020

Forecast and Price for Ripple in May

The resistance level of 1 dollar Ripple was too tough, unsuccessful testing led ripple / dollar pair to the support level of 0,8.

In the short term, everything will depend on the cryptocurrency development team. If there is no negative news from them, you can count on a rebound from the key support level of 0,8 and overcoming the psychological mark of 1 dollar. In this case, there are prospects for the growth of the ripple rate in May to the level of 1,12.

Nevertheless, despite the rather confident upward dynamics of XRP in the previous month, in May there is no reason for an abnormal price increase.

Conclusion

As you already understood from the review and previous articles on the topic of cryptocurrencies, Fortrader analysts are optimists who believe that digital assets are the future of the financial world, which dictates our views on market prospects.

Of course, there are many other points of view, supported by convincing and not very good reasons, which we will not dispute – everyone has the right to have their own opinion. If your assessment of the cryptocurrency forecast for May differs from ours, share it in the comments.

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