Bitcoin price at $40,000 by end of 2020! – statement by the СЕО of Bitcoin Foundation

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Contents

Bitcoin price at $40,000 by end of 2020! – statement by the СЕО of Bitcoin Foundation

Цена Bitcoin в последнее время демонстрирует относительную стабильность. Он находит поддержку на отметке около $ 3,5 тыс. и показывает временные пампы и обвалы. Многие люди купили его на прошлогодних хаях и теперь ждут скачка цен. Обоснованы ли такие ожидания?

Сколько стоит биткоин узнать легко. А вот цена биткоина завтра, через месяц, через год далеко не так очевидна. Мы провели анализ и готовы дать свой прогноз.

Цена биткоина сегодня (BTC/USD)

BTC последнее время демонстрировал стабильность (за исключением серьёзного снижения цен в ноябре-декабре, когда криптовалюта потеряла более 3000 долларов всего за месяц). Повседневная волатильность биткойна в настоящее время относительно низкая, особенно по сравнению с альтами из топ-100 по рыночной капитализации. Ниже вы можете увидеть текущую стоимость основной криптовалюты.

Прогноз курса биткоина по сравнению с альтами

Мы считаем, что Bitcoin доказал свое лидерство среди криптовалют. Несмотря на постоянное появление новых высокотехнологичных альткоинов, BTC остается флагманом, определяющим весь рынок.

Давайте сравним темпы падения цен на Bitcoin и его конкурентов после хайов декабря 2020 года – января 2020 года. Цена Ethereum снизилась с 1400 до 100 долларов, то есть в 14 раз (!). Ripple упал с высоты в 3 доллара до каких-то 25 центов в августе 2020 года. Позднее цены стабилизировались, но это уже совсем другая история.

В целом, Биткоин продемонстрировал гораздо лучшую стабильность, чем другие криптовалюты из топ-10 по рыночной капитализации, не говоря уже о других альтах и сотнях шиткоинов, заполняющих криптопространство.

Прогнозы экспертов

Вы знаете, что многие эксперты высказали свое мнение о цене биткойна. Их можно разделить на три группы:

  • Бычий взгляд: «Bitcoin — это будущее», «BTC достигнет 1 миллиона долларов» и т.д.
  • Медвежий взгляд: «Биткойн мертв», «пузырь лопнул», «крипта – это обман» и т.д.
  • Нейтральная точка зрения.

Стоит ли доверять мнению экспертов? Мы думаем, что вы не можете относиться к ним как к истине в последней инстанции. Тем не менее, на них стоит обратить внимание, чтобы сформировать собственное мнение на этот счет. Вы также должны иметь в виду, что некоторые люди делают громкие заявления только ради хайпа и привлечения внимания к своей персоне. Что ж, давайте рассмотрим некоторые наиболее известные прогнозы курса BTC, сделанные уважаемыми сообществом людьми.

Sure, no one knows. But price predictions are stupid because no one knows. Just wishful thinking.

Биткоин прогноз Джона Макафи

Джон Макафи (John McAfee) – основатель компании, выпускающей антивирусное программное обеспечение, и один из пионеров криптовалюты.

Этот человек наиболее известен своим неординарным прогнозом курса цифрового золота, сделанным 29 ноября 2020 года: 1 миллион долларов к концу 2020 года.

When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2020. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bircoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong. pic.twitter.com/WVx3E71nyD

Джон пообещал съесть свои гениталии, если прогноз окажется неверным. Вероятно, это был лучший прогноз цены биткоина. Но сбудется ли он? Это предсказание кажется нереальным. Посмотрите на график, сделанный веб-сайтом bircoin.top — это огромный путь, который крипта должна пройти, чтобы достичь отметки в миллион вечнозеленых.

Мы считаем, что шансы на то, что прогноз Джона окажется ошибочным, очень велики. Тем более, он и после этого успел сделать парочку сомнительных предсказаний. Например, в конце мая 2020 года McAfee заявил, что BTC в июне превысит 15 000 долларов. Как известно, главная криптовалюта не достигла такой цены. Джон также дал заоблачные прогнозы относительно некоторых других криптовалют, включая Golem. На самом деле, обсуждая прогнозы Макафи, можно спорить лишь об одном, будет ли он есть свое мужское достоинство.

BTC прогноз Майкла Новограца

«Легенда хедж-фонда» (как его называл CNBC) Michael Novogratz, основатель крипто-инвестиционной компании Galaxy Investment Partners, в ноябре 2020 года в интервью CNBC заявил, что «Биткойн может стоить 40 000 долларов к концу 2020 года». К его чести, он не рекомендовал розничным инвесторам вкладывать в виртуальную валюту более 1–3% их собственного капитала. Прогнозы Майкла были близки к истине — BTC достиг 20 000 долларов в декабре 2020 года, но дальнейший рост был отложен в долгий ящик.

А как насчет актуальных прогнозов Новограца? В сентябре 2020 года он сообщил CNN, что цена BTC вырастет на 30% к концу года. Через неделю он сообщил журналистам CNBC, что до конца года BTC-максимум составит 9к. В ноябре 2020 года в интервью Bloomberg, когда что-то на рынке пошло не так, он посоветовал подождать до следующего года.

Том Ли о курсе биткоина

В конце августа 2020 года аналитик Fundstrat Том Ли заявил, что криптовалюта «может закончить год взрывным ростом». По его мнению, «возможно», что цена BTC может вырасти до 25 тысяч долларов в этом (по сути уже в прошлом) году. На первый квартал 2020 года актуальным остается диапазон 3000-4000 долл. США, но никак не 25 тыс. Вероятно, в связи с падением курса криптовалют Томас в декабре 2020 года заявил, что он перестал давать «сроки достижения справедливой стоимости». Иначе говоря, он прекратил заниматься таким неблагодарным занятием, как прогнозирование цен. В феврале 2020 года Ли ограничился заявлением, что ожидает улучшения ситуации с криптовалютами. Он решил избегать конкретных цифр, говоря лишь о множестве потенциальных ценовых катализаторов.

Прогноз цены биткоина Чарли Ли

Летом 2020 года Чарли Ли, основатель Litecoin, дал ценный совет инвесторам. Он посоветовал купить хотя бы один BTC перед тем, как покупать альты, в том числе LTC. В феврале 2020 года в группе Litecoin в Telegram Чарли спросили, когда цена BTC вновь достигнет 20 тысяч долларов. Ли пожелал сообществу, чтобы это случилось в ближайшие три года. Пожалуй, это один из самых объективных экспертов, чье мнение, как правило, соответствует реальному положению дел.

Прогноз Кеннета Рогоффа

Среди экспертов в области криптовалют далеко не все настроены оптимистично. Весной 2020 года Кеннет Рогофф, экономист из Гарварда, заявил, что «флагман» сдуется и будет торговаться по 100 долларов. По его словам, это более вероятный сценарий, чем достижение отметки в 100 000 долларов.

К такого рода предсказаниям сообщество уже привыкло, ведь биток хоронили добрую сотню раз. Несмотря на ужасные прогнозы, он выжил и, кроме того, стал самым доходным активом в современной экономике. Каждый имеет право высказаться. Однако каких-либо оснований для столь глубокого падения, даже при большом желании, найти трудно.

Мнение ученых о будущем крипты?

Bitcoin, похоже, самая исследованная криптовалюта. Многие ученые пытались понять его природу. Анализ их работы может быть полезен при прогнозировании цены первой крипты, потому что исследователям удалось сформулировать некоторые фундаментальные факторы, которые формируют систему ценообразования монеты.

Peetz & Mall

Ученые Д. Петц и Дж. Молл в своей статье «Почему Биткойн это не валюта, а спекулятивный актив», опубликованной в сентябре 2020 года, утверждали, что флагман рынка не имеет обоснованной цены. Они написали, что монета достигла показателей пузыря, который обязательно. Тем не менее, они не отбрасывали возможности того, что пузырь BTC в среднесрочной перспективе может стать еще больше. Как видим, к сожалению, или к счастью, но ученые выдвинули вполне резонную теорию.

Эрик Будиш

Эрик Будиш из Чикагской школы бизнеса (Chicago Booth School of Business) предположил, что биткойн подвергнется атаке 51%, если он обретет высокую экономическую ценность, то есть, если он станет активом, аналогичным золоту. По его словам, в достижении BTC такой роли существуют определенные экономические ограничения. Это интересная мысль. Однако вряд ли BTC так уж просто взломать.

Йохен Моберт (Deutsche Bank Research)

Йохен Моберт написал большую статью, посвященную крипте. В ней он высказал мысль, что прогнозисты допускают много ошибочных аналогий и предположений. Для того, чтобы сделать прогнозирование более информированным, нужно больше времени. Кроме того, для распространения технологии блокчейн потребуется еще несколько лет. Ученый поднимает вопрос относительно того факта, что биткойн вполне может быть заменен новой, более продвинутой криптовалютой, или ее нынешними конкурентами.

Прогноз цены биткойна 2020

Когда стоимость главной крипты приблизилась к отметке 20 тыс. USD, все говорили о том, что покорение вершин продолжится. Кто-то бил себя кулаками в грудь, убеждая всех в том, что уже в скором времени продаст свой биток за 100 тыс. USD. А кто-то даже собрался пообедать собственным детородным органом, если свершится «невозможное» и биткоин не достигнет отметки в 1 млн. долларов США в ближайшие 2 года.

Скачек курса ведущих монет на Coinmarketcap в декабре 2020 года – январе 2020 года не имел под собой достаточного рыночного обоснования. Сегодня ценообразование биткоина не имеет такого спекулятивного характера, как раньше. Это значит, что рост стоимости существенно замедлится. Однако за периодическими спадами и длительными флэтами последует рост.

В середине октября 2020 года Fidelity Investments, одна из крупнейших в мире компания управления активами, объявила о создании подразделения, специализирующегося на предоставлении крипто-услуг институциональным инвесторам. Точная дата запуска Fidelity Digital Assets теперь известна. Это должно произойти в первой половине 2020 года. Такому событию по силам стать мощным драйвером роста рынка в течение 2020 года.

Fidelity Investments предоставляет инвестиционные и депозитарные услуги 13 000 консалтинговым фирмам и брокерам. Новое подразделение Fidelity Digital Assets предоставит платформу для торговли криптовалютой, консалтинговые услуги и физическое хранение криптоактивов.

2020 год может наконец-то подарить рынку БАККТ. BAKKT – это платформа, которая позволит пользователям и институциональным инвесторам покупать, продавать и хранить цифровые активы в глобальной экосистеме. У этого проекта немало именитых партнеров, в том числе Microsoft Technology Corporation и международная сеть кофеен Starbucks. Запуск платформы уже несколько раз откладывался. По состоянию на январь 2020 года платформа продолжает формировать штат специалистов по крипте и блокчейну. Запуск BAKKT должен всколыхнуть рынок. Ожидается, что запуск состоится летом этого года. Но не будем загадывать, чтоб не сглазить.

Сообщество и инвесторы ждали принятия Bitcoin ETF в феврале 2020 года. Однако основная заявка CBOE и VanEck была отозвана из-за шатдауна в США. Позже заявка была подана повторно, но теперь решения, возможно, придется ждать еще более полугода.

Прогноз цены биткойна 2020

Существует мнение, что колебания курса BTC в основном связаны с халвингом (сокращением вознаграждений за блок в два раза), а не с массовым принятием криптовалют, привлечением институциональных инвесторов или другими факторами. Это мнение заслуживает особого внимания, и вот почему.

За время существования цифрового золота халвинг происходил дважды (в 2020 и 2020 году). Оба раза через некоторое время происходил значительный рост цены. Сокращение вдвое означает уменьшение вознаграждения за блок и, как следствие, уменьшение доходов майнеров. Чтобы не ставить функционирования нетворка под угрозу, майнинг должен и дальше быть финансово привлекательным. Рост цены обеспечит майнеров достаточным вознаграждением.

Существует даже веб-сайт с обратным отсчетом времени до халвинга: bitcoinblockhalf.com Это один из признаков того, что это не простая дата.

Сколько будет стоить биткоин через 5 лет и прогноз на 2025 год

Сколько будет стоить биткойн через пять лет (в 2024 году)? Согласно веб-сайту Walletinvestor, его цена в 2023-2024 году составит около 32 000 долларов. Тем не менее, этот прогноз был сделан на основе машинного анализа, алгоритмы которого разработаны командой сайта. Насколько нам известно, он не учитывает фундаментальные факторы, такие как запуск платформы BAKKT и тд.

  • 330 000 долларов в 2021 году (Бобби Ли);
  • 96 000 долл. США к 2023 году (аналитики Satis Group);
  • свыше 9 000 долларов США в 2025 году (Digitalcoinprice).

Цена биткоина через 10 лет и прогноз на 2030 год

Мы верим, что криптовалюта – это будущее экономических отношений. Вопрос только в том, когда это будущее станет реальностью. Мы думаем, что BTC в буквальном смысле станет цифровым золотом. Маловероятно, что он будет использоваться в качестве повседневного средства оплаты, по крайней мере, из-за того, что люди не будут тратить актив, который, может существенно вырасти в цене. Эту роль будут играть другие крипты, такие как Litecoin, Dash или, что еще более вероятно, стейблкоины. Поскольку количество биткойнов ограничено, их цена будет расти, и, по нашему мнению, может достичь показателя в 100к долларов.

Братья Уинклвосс считают, что в 30х годах 21 века капитализация биткоина достигнет 7-8 трлн. долл. США. Если быть более точным, то, по мнению Тайлера, цифровое золото должно догнать золото физическое. Если так и будет, стоимость битка должна составить $300 000. Но такой показатель мы считаем маловероятным даже на столь далекую перспективу. Какой же в таком случае должна быть капитализация рынка в целом? 15-20 трлн. долл. США? Да нет, бред какой-то.

Выводы — рост таки будет

Надо признать, что BTC является спекулятивным активом. Так называемые киты регулярно проводят ценовые манипуляции. Но в тоже время биткойн и технология, стоящая за ним, безусловно, являются революционными. В каком случае рост цены будет иметь под собой крепкие основания? Рынок нуждается в более глубоком регулировании, которое сможет предотвратить манипулирование ценами. Кроме того, крипта все еще не достигла уровня актива широкого потребления.

Такие факторы, как создание соответствующей инфраструктуры, сообщения о том, что институциональные инвесторы используют не биржевые методы для покупки криптовалют, интерес крупных компаний к крипте и блокчейну, заставляют предположить, что цена на биткойны будет расти. Когда это произойдет? Никто не знает наверняка. Мы думаем, что цена BTC скоро достигнет отметки в $ 10 тыс. И, вероятно, пойдет еще выше. Запуск биткойн-ETF и другие факторы могут послужить триггером для бычьего сценария развития рынка. Кто знает, может быть, в 2050 году (или даже в 2025 году) Bitcoin будет так же широко использоваться во всем мире, как и доллары США.

Наше мнение динамике курса BTC можете увидеть на рисунке ниже.

Отказ от ответственности: Это информация для размышления, но, ни в коем случае, не инвестиционные рекомендации. В прогнозе стоимости биткоина отображены максимальные цены, которые возможны в течение определенного периода. Учитывайте, что криптовалютный рынок регулярно подвергается коррекциям.

Bitcoin Price Forecast 2020: BTC, the ultimate store of value

2020 will be a challenging year for Bitcoin. Strong conundrums have to be resolved both in the fundamental and technical side, with the halving event coming around May and the long-term trend-lines and Fibonacci retracement levels coming from the 2020 big surge in play. How these arguments play out will determine whether the main cryptocurrency can confirm its status as the ultimate modern store of value, the digital version of gold.

Gold has been used for thousands of years to store and transport wealth. Today, the industrial applications of gold are very important, but in the year 3000 BC, its purpose were merely to function as a reserve of value, or just ornamental.

The first recorded usages of gold go way back in the day, in the Egypt of the pharaohs and the priests of the temples. Gold, boosted by the pharaohs and the priests of the temple, became a precious object. From that moment on, gold was accepted as a payment method.

Today, 5019 years later, the capitalization of the gold market is valued around $7 trillion.

Bitcoin was introduced into society barely 11 years ago, and in that time, it has come to hold 230 billion dollars in value.

It is an incredible achievement to gain the trust of millions of people to deposit a portion of their savings in such a new asset. Fighting the opposition of governments and the financial industry, with constant news about illegal activities, a complex buying and selling interface and with no other guarantee than a paper with the 21 words that keep you tied to your money.

To make it even more surprising, we must not forget that Bitcoin does not have a spokesperson, a governing council or anything like that.

You can be in or out on Bitcoin as a store of value, but the merit must be recognized.

Bitcoin price in 2020: Profits down the radar

2020 has been a year in which Bitcoin has done really well but, compared to previous results still very present in the collective memory, it has gone unnoticed.

Bitcoin ended the year 2020 with a value per unit of around $4000 and 12 months later it reached an annual high of $13000. That bull-run totaled a bigger-than-300% increase, and even after the subsequent fall, reaching the end of 2020 at $7400 would still represent an increase of more than 100% from lows.

This has been the nature of Bitcoin to date. Large price movements from which extraordinary profits can be made if we are able to give our trading and our emotions enough elasticity.

We do not know how it will behave in the future, although in this article I will try to provide some clues.

The volatile personality of Bitcoin

Strong variations in the price of cryptocurrencies are a common denominator, except in stable coins projects.

As we have seen, the potential closing of 2020 around the current levels of $7000 per Bitcoin would represent an increase of more than 100%, but it is not the subject of headlines nor does it raise the buying furor that we have seen in the past. The breadth and depth of the downward trends in Bitcoin, proportional to the upward trends, have made a dent in the emotional strength of investors, who can renounce excellent profitability in the face of strong volatility.

The average investor is very emotionally conditioned to be able to withstand the strong ups and downs of Bitcoin. Few non-professional investors hedge their positions with derivatives, the simplest way to conveniently navigate through the downturns.

Bitcoin and technical analysis: Respect for tradition

Throughout this year, the BTC/USD pair has covered all standard positions for Fibonacci reversals from the downtrend coming from the 2020 highs.

In mid-May it reached the 23.6% level of retracement at $7200, at the end of June it exceeded the 38.2% level of retracement at $9500 and one month later it had reached the 50% level of retracement at $11500 and the 61.8% level of retracement at $13500.

The reversal process then went into passive mode and BTC/USD gradually has been losing levels down to the current support at $7200 (23.6% Fibonacci reversal).

One characteristic of the Fibonacci retracement tool is the extension levels. If mathematics allows us to predict how far a pull-back can move, it also allows us to see projections of possible future prices above the all-time highs.

In this chart, I have pointed out the different levels of retracement and extensions for the BTC/USD pair. The first extension level beyond the historical highs is at the price level of $26391, then the second at $30419 and the third one at $47485.

All in all, the lesson to take here is that the BTC/USD pair respects traditional technical analysis tools. The BTC/USD chart allows us to observe, among other things, the way Bitcoin behaves in certain situations. After careful observation, one is able to find patterns of behavior that are repeated over time.

BTC/USD is a technically decisive pair when it comes into action, but otherwise, it is extremely calm when relax mode is on. It can spend many days in a row moving in a narrow price range, but when the BTC/USD pair starts moving up, it doesn’t hesitate and moves quickly towards the target.

Bitcoin ETF as a catalyst for a bullish market

On December 2, the SEC approved the launch of an investment fund that will invest in Bitcoin futures. In this way, investors will be able to take exposure to the crypto market through its most important representative, Bitcoin.

With this approval, the SEC has taken a step in the right direction so that in the coming months it will finally approve the launch of an ETF based also on the Bitcoin futures.

Not everything in the picture is bright, though. An obstacle to the approval of the Bitcoin ETF is the recent appointment of Brad Sherman as chairman of the Subcommittee for the Defense of Investor, Entrepreneurship and Capital Markets, supervisory body of the SEC. Sherman has declared himself opposed to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The implications of this approval by the US regulator could be enormous, though.

According to a recent survey, almost 35% of US citizens are considering some kind of investment in Bitcoin, and an ETF seems the perfect way to do this.

US citizens are used to investing in ETFs, a product that they understand and that many have in their investment portfolios. This familiarity would accelerate the approach to Bitcoin of a mass of several tenths of millions of investors.

How will 2020 halving impact Bitcoin price?

If there is one key event for the Bitcoin in 2020, it is the halving of the reward. It is estimated that by January 1, 2020, about 240K Bitcoins will remain to be mined before the amount of Bitcoins that is rewarded each time a block is created is halved.

The rate of creation of each block of the Bitcoin network is 10 minutes, so we can estimate that the halving should occur on 14 May 2020 at 17:18:49. Or at least somewhere close to that day, which puts us in May.

Up to now, there have been two halvings in the short history of Bitcoin. In the attached table we can see what has happened and then project what could happen.

Source: Insider Pro

Bitcoin has already experienced twice a halving in the mining reward.

The first of these occurred on November 28, 2020, and reduced the original reward from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block. The value of the BTC/USD pair was 12.22 and after 368 days the value had skyrocketed an incredible 9218.67%, up to $1178 per BTC.

The second Halving occurred on July 9, 2020. This halving reduced the mined reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC per block. At the time of the event, the value of the BTC/USD pair was $657.61 and after 525 days, the value of the Bitcoin rose 2938.57% to its historic high of $19800.

A simple progression indicates that possibly in the next event the development up to the next historical maximum would require almost three years with approximate profitability of something more than 1000% and a value close to $80000.

The effects of halving price rewards are clear. If the miners are rewarded half as much as they have been so far, either they manage to halve the cost, or the price at which they will have to sell to make mining profitable will increase. It is possible that the result will end up at a midpoint between the two approaches.

Libra, the bridge between two worlds

On June 13, 2020, the Wall Street Journal published information that Facebook was working on a major Blockchain project.

Little by little, details about the project have been known. The idea of Facebook was to launch a stable currency that could be used as a means of payment both on Facebook and in other companies that joined the project, all associated around the project from the Libra Association.

The project included the launch of the digital currency, called Libra, and a wallet called Calibra.

The announcement of the Libra project immediately caught the attention of governments and regulators. Authorities in Europe and the United States have reacted aggressively against the Libra project, which, with a potential customer base of 1.7 trillion users, could endanger the financial stability of many countries.

Of the initial 28 participants in the Libra Association, 21 remain in the project after strong pressure from politicians and regulators. The Libra Association met for the first time on October 15, 2020.

The planning of the project sets the first half of 2020 as the date for the launch of the Libra cryptocurrency.

Central Banks getting their digital coins ready

As a result of the Libra case, many governments and central banks realized that the implementation of cryptocurrencies projects was not going to wait for anyone, and decided to get down to work and launch their own projects.

China, India, France, Tunisia, Lithuania and the European Union, among others, have presented their own digital coin projects, to be launched as early as 2020.

There seems to be at least a consensus on the terminology to be used by central banks. CBDC (Central Bank Digital Coin) is the acronym chosen to designate all those digital currencies that are going to be launched on the market with the support of central banks from all countries in the world.

The ultimate goal of this digitization process is two: guaranteeing authenticity, accounting and traceability is the first, eradicating the black economy is the main one.

In my opinion, these developments legitimize Blockchain’s technology and its qualities as an instrument of custody and value transfer. Bitcoin should capitalize on this to occupy the role that Gold has in the world of fiat coins, but in this case in a new world of digital currencies.

Underlying forces behind price movement in Bitcoin for 2020

Traditional markets instability (Risk On/ Risk Off)

Bitcoin’s relationship with market emotions is complex.

At first sight, we can say that Bitcoin is a typical risk-on asset since it provides positive support and loss of fear, which is the mindset that helps to make an investment in such a volatile asset.

On the other hand, the argument of the maximalists is based on the theoretical safe-haven value of Bitcoin in situations of political or economic instability. This proposal is not outlandish, but I do believe that the level of economic turmoil needed for Bitcoin to be a safe-haven would need to be enormous, close to apocalyptic.

How to measure the Risk On/Risk Off in the crypto market: Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance is the percentage of the total market capitalization that Bitcoin holds compared to the other thousands of cryptocurrencies.

Since records exist, from mid-2020, Bitcoin maintained its level of dominance above 92%, a level it did not lose until February 2020. Things went quickly south as, by January 2020, that dominance had been trimmed to only a pedestrian 34.97%.

Throughout 2020 and 2020, among the weakness of the whole Altcoin segment, Bitcoin has been recovering its dominance. At the end of 2020, Bitcoin’s dominance level reached 69.20%.

Analysts use the Bitcoin Dominance chart to capture market momentum. When the crypto market enters an uptrend, Bitcoin loses dominance, while in bear markets it goes up.

If we speak only of the crypto investment space, it is understood that beyond the stable coins, the asset that is considered safe-haven is Bitcoin, while the Altcoins would be rated as assets with an increasing component of Risk-On as the level of market capitalization decreases.

The reading of Bitcoin’s dominance, and moreover the analysis of its graphical representation, is an important component of price forecasting exercises in Bitcoin.

It is important to point out that it is precisely this behavior of Bitcoin that triggers the liquidation of the weakest projects. When Bitcoin attracts a large part of the capital, it cuts off the flow of capital to the Altcoins and causes the fall of the most under-financed projects.

Altcoin Consolidation process

The crypto market has seen the number of projects listed in exchanges increase exponentially to reach a ceiling of around 4100 projects. Among all these, it is estimated that 1085 of them are no longer around and, according to experts consulted, many of the 3000 remaining will fall in the short term.

According to Andy Cheung, Head of Operations at OKEx: “The market has a consolidation ahead, in the short term, during which many projects that have not reached a minimum of acceptance will disappear”.

Bitcoin Forecast 2020: The insiders’ takes

Andy Cheung, Head of Operations at OKEx

“Next year, we expect to see further expansion of global payments that do not come from legacy banking institutions. Bitcoin and other digital currencies have changed the financial landscape and shifted the way we look at all assets.”

“We do believe by year-end 2020, we will see a Bitcoin ETF listed in the United States. This event could be the catalyst to push Bitcoin above $14,000. One of the main drivers for this expectation is that similar ETFs have already been approved in Europe.”

“The opportunity to tokenize assets like securities, energy, real estate and art is a natural outgrowth of the current disruption we are experiencing. STOs can portion out larger assets and give investors peace of mind on the regulatory side.”

Richard Dennis, Founder and CEO at Temtum

“The imminence of quantum computing holds major implications for the cryptocurrency industry. Today, cryptocurrencies’ pseudo-random generation of keys leaves them susceptible to exploitation by hackers. Quantum computing increases the likelihood of predicting software-generated values, presenting major security concerns.”

“Quantum-secure networks, such as those that leverage quantum entanglement to generate provable random numbers and next-generation hashing algorithms, will be poised to succeed in an era of quantum computing.”

“Bitcoin originally set out to take on legacy payment systems, but it has not successfully achieved this. Transactions on the Bitcoin network can take up to 10-15 minutes, making it ill-equipped for mainstream payments.”

“In 2020, I predict we will start to see other cryptocurrency payment systems gain momentum that tackle these challenges and deliver payment solutions that meets the needs of today’s global economy.”

Robert Beadles, President at Monarch

“In 2020, I expect to see more governments and business leaders announce their own cryptocurrencies, and while this legitimizes the industry, we must stay skeptical.”

“I predict that in 2020, the weeding out of poorly executed crypto projects will continue. We’ll see more and more cryptocurrencies that popped up in 2020 hit zero, and their teams fade away or move on to different projects. I predict 98% of crypto projects and their currencies will go to zero or have no viable exit for their hodlers.”

“I think Bitcoin’s halving in May could spike the price. I expect to see Bitcoin reach $11,000 around this time. The communities that believe in Bitcoin will continue to HODL, regardless of price fluctuations, and by now it’s clear that Bitcoin has proven itself as a long-term investment and store of value.”

BTC/USD technical analysis: What to expect in the bullish/bearish scenarios

The price movements seen in December, in the days before the release of this article, have vanished the anxiety of inaction and induced the fear of falling into an ultra-long-term bearish environment.

The most positive thing about these falls is that they have taken us to a limit situation and from there everything is much clearer.

The BTC/USD pair returns to the price zone where it slept for most of 2020, before breaking down and reaching the relative low in December of that year.

During 2020, the BTC/USD pair has set its high above $13000, back when for a few weeks euphoria took over the market again.

Since then, the BTC/USD pair has been losing strength to the current level of $6500 (E).

A visit to the next support at $5600 (C) is very likely, but as long as the last trend line (D) at the $5000 price level is not breached the uptrend continues, albeit much weaker.

According to the “post-Halving” statistic, there should be a dramatic rise in the Bitcoin price during the months following the event, which will take place in mid-May 2020. The progression explained above proposes as a theoretical target the price level of $88000.

But that same statistic makes it clear that the surge should occur months later and develop exponentially, being very small just after the event and amplifying months later.

On this basis, we can propose at least three scenarios:

The first scenario is a full bullish one. In this model, the BTC/USD pair follows the tradition and a strong bullish trend emerges since the early days of the year. It would reach the zone of historical highs coinciding with the Halving event and would continue in the direction of the favorite destination of all coiners, the Moon!

The second scenario would be quieter. Lateral bullish development would keep the BTC/USD pair below the relative maximum of $13K, attack the historical highs for the summer of 2020 and continue to rise with targets of $26K, $30K and $47K.

The third scenario is adverse. BTC/USD remains in a bullish scenario as long as it stays above the December lows of $3150. But whenever it falls below the $5000 level, the weakness will be obvious. In such case, we should expect new relative lows and, probably, the end of this funny history.

Gregor Horvat sees another potential big surge on Bitcoin price when conducting his Elliott Wave analysis:

Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis

As we expected for 2020, we have seen nice and strong bullish reversal on Bitcoin into a wave (A) or (1) that can be a signal for more upside in the upcoming 2020 year, especially because of that slow and corrective decline into a wave (B) or (2) in the second part of 2020 which can find the support soon, ideally at the end of 2020 or at the beginning of 2020 here around 61,8% – 78,6% Fibonacci retracement. So, we believe that the Crypto market may see a recovery again in 2020 at least for a short period of time.

Forecast Poll 2020

Forecast H1 – Jun 30th H2 – Dec 31st
Bullish 52.2% 47.8%
Bearish 30.4% 21.7%
Sideways 17.4% 30.4%
Average Forecast Price 12833.76 12768.74
EXPERTS H1 – Jun 30th H2 – Dec 31st
Alexander Douedari 10000 Bullish 13000 Bullish
Andrew Lockwood 7500 Sideways 5500 Bearish
Andrew Pancholi 77444 Bullish 9680 Bearish
Brad Alexander 5000 Bearish 3500 Bearish
Chris Svorcik 25000 Bullish 75000 Bullish
Chris Weston 6400 Sideways 6200 Sideways
Christina Parthenidou 4500 Bearish 6000 Sideways
Coincodex 6000 Sideways 16500 Bullish
Cyrus Ip 9800 Bullish 8500 Bullish
Dmitriy Gurkovskiy 3515 Bearish 12000 Bullish
Dukascopy Bank Team 13300 Bullish 19600 Bullish
Eagle FX Team 11000 Bullish 6800 Sideways
ForexGDP Team 12800 Bullish 24000 Bullish
Gregor Horvat 10000 Bullish 12000 Bullish
Ipek Ozkardeskaya 7000 Sideways 6000 Sideways
Jamie Saettele 5000 Bearish 6000 Sideways
Jeff Langin 5000 Bearish 7000 Sideways
Jose Blasco 5400 Bearish 5000 Bearish
Justin Paolini 15000 Bullish 25000 Bullish
Nenad Kerkez 13000 Bullish 5201 Bearish
OctaFx Analyst Team 13850 Bullish 7200 Sideways
Stelios Kontogoulas 5000 Bearish 4000 Bearish
Stephen Innes 8000 Bullish 10000 Bullish

The halving event is expected to be one of the primary focuses of the cryptocurrency markets in the first quarter of 2020. The anticipation of seeing a significate BTC price surge could be more visible as the May event approaches. However, we believe that the upside of the prices may not be as notable as the previous two halvings. On the other hand, seasonal pattern suggests that BTC may have higher volatility in April, May, October, and November.

As long as Bitcoin trades below the 8000 level, the downside pressure seems to very persistent. Major support in the 3000-4000 level seems to be a strong base into 2020.

Bitcoin Could ‘Easily’ Hit $40,000 by the End of 2020, Says Bitcoin Investor Michael Novogratz

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According to bitcoin investor Michael Novogratz Bitcoin could ‘easily’ hit $40,000 by the end of 2020

Fortress hedge fund manager and famous bitcoin investor Michael Novogratz announced his opinion about bitcoin price. He stated that digital currency could increase in 4 times by the end of this year. “Bitcoin could be at $40,000 at the end of 2020. It easily could,” Michael Novogratz said on CNBC’s show “Fast Money.”

This statement could turn out to be the truth as Bitcoin hit another record high above $10,000 today morning. This new record is really a historic moment for everyone. Since Bitcoin introduction in 2009, this cryptocurrency has grown by over 900% in just last one year and is considered as one of the best investment tools.

“The weekend’s bitcoin price hike is just the continuation of a long-term bull run on the cryptocurrency, fuelled by the tsunami of speculative trading on Japanese exchanges and the entrance of institutional investors across the world,” head of marketing at cryptocurrency exchange GatecoinThomas Glucksmann said.

At press time Bitcoin price is continuing to grow and cryptocurrency is trading at $10,100, according to CoinMarketCap.

“There’s a big wave of money coming, not just here but all around the world,” added Novogratz. Nowadays the Bitcoin biggest trading volume accrues to Japan at about 62 percent. The second place for trading volume belongs to USA at about 21 percent. In addition, 9 percent of total trading volume accrues to South Korea.

As for Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Michael Novogratz shared the following opinion: “Ethereum, which I think just touched $500 or is getting close, could be triple where it is as well.”

Ethereum hit a record high of $493.40 on Monday. Now this cryptocurrency is trading at $477.31 according to the data from CoinMarketCap.

Michael Novogratz states about positive perspective of Bitcoin price and cryptocurrency market not for the first time. In June, billionaire investor predicted that cryptocurrency market could reach $5 trillion by 2022.

Just month ago, Michael Novogratz shared opinion that Bitcoin could touch $10000 by the end of this year. These predictions came true even one month earlier. However, time will show if Bitcoin price Bitcoin is the same or higher by the end of this month.

Despite of continuing Bitcoin demand and its price increase, Michael Novogratz advised retail investors put no more than 1 to 3 percent of their net worth in cryptocurrencies, or wealthier investors to put no more than 5 to 10 percent.

Ever-growing bitcoin demand and as results price of the cryptocurrency force not only investors but ordinary people to be engaged into conversations about bitcoin future all over the world. No doubt that the iOS app for bitcoin exchange Coinbase is now the top trending search in the App Store. This app has made considerable growth over this year and nowadays Coinbase can be considered as the easiest way to attract new users into the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Coinbase is the leading platform by which American people can buy digital currencies as bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin. Coinbase had 11.7 million users by the end of October, but number of users incereased considerably to 13.3 million last week.

Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2020: From Zero to a Million – What do the Experts Think?

The value of bitcoin rose 9 million percent over the last 10 years, an astounding feat that will go down in history as one of the most interesting financial phenomena ever.

And while bitcoin’s had plenty of wild ups and wild downs during its fledgling life, the original cryptocurrency finished off the past decade decidedly on the up and up.

Indeed, the BTC price gained 87 percent in 2020, almost doubling from $3,843 USD to $7,200 on the year. In the same span, the Bitcoin network’s hashrate surged from 40 exahashes per second to 100 exahashes per second, a 150 percent climb.

The year also saw: big companies roll out big products, like Bakkt and its futures products; currency crises in Latin America and increased Sino-U.S. trade relations driving global discussions around BTC’s potentially blooming status as a safe haven asset; a tipping point reached in the rise of pro-Bitcoin politicians; “satoshi” ossified into the English language itself; and Bitcoin’s second-layer scaling solution, Lightning, continues to mature.

And that’s just scratching the surface…

2020 is on the slate now, and speculation throughout the ecosystem is already in full swing as to what’s in store for Bitcoin this year.

And the Bitcoin halving is set to take place this spring, a major point of intrigue that some analysts argue could cause major price activity. Price predictions have recently been flying accordingly — not that they weren’t already with the arrival of the new year!

With no shortage of opinions to consider , let’s take a brief survey of the thoughts swirling around the cryptoeconomy regarding where bitcoin can go this year and beyond.

If you want to see what the experts think of Ethereum’s Price, see their predictions here.

Nouriel Roubini: $0

Dr. Nouriel Roubini — or “Dr. Doom,” as some call him — is an American economist who’s made a name for himself for, among other things, entrenching himself as bitcoin and cryptocurrency’s biggest and most biting mainstream critic over the years.

With that said, Dr. Roubini has oft said that bitcoin has no fundamental value and will crash to $0 in time. The economist has been a bit quiet lately, but last summer he fired one of his typical salvos, tweeting out “Donald Trump is right about bitcoin.”

It was a reference to President Trump’s blockbuster July 2020 Twitter thread in which the president bashed bitcoin as “not money” and “based on thin air.”

As such, it is, and hasn’t been, a mystery what bitcoin is worth to Dr. Roubini before or in 2020 and later: nada.

Peter Schiff: $1,000, maybe

“Bitcoin is nearing the neckline of the head-and-shoulders top I pointed out before the Oct 25th 40% pump. The right shoulder is now shrugged and the neckline slanted and parallel to the shoulders. If it breaks the price objective for the dump is $1,000 to complete the pattern.”

Those comments come from Peter Schiff, the American economist, financial commentator, and “goldbug” trader. Schiff’s long been a big critic of bitcoin, and the remarks above come from a Twitter exchange last November.

Therein, Schiff said he thought BTC could potentially be on pace to dump to $1,000. The charts may have changed since then, but one could be forgiven for presuming that Schiff thinks such a selloff could still be in play.

Moreover, Schiff projects that both U.S. stocks and BTC will soon be dropping and that “Bitcoin will fall even faster.”

Continuing the Dec. trend all asset classes are rising except Bitcoin. #Bitcoin may have been the best preforming asset of the last decade, but it’s already the worst performing asset of this decade. While I think U.S. stocks will soon drop, I think Bitcoin will fall even faster.

BitMEX Research: $2,000 to $15,000

The research wing of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX offered their 2020 predictions last Christmas Eve, and they’re quite plausible. The exchange’s thinkers estimated that bitcoin won’t trade below $2,000 or above $15,000 for the year, much like happened in 2020.

BitMEX research also projected that bitcoin’s market dominance rate wouldn’t rise over 75 percent and conversely wouldn’t sink below 30 percent.

– $BTC over $2,000, but also under $15,000
– $BTC dominance under 75%, but also over 30%
– CSW says: 2021 is year the Chinese shutdown BTC mining & 1m of his coins hit the market (Whatever else)
– #MATIC falls in value by over 80% @NemanjaMatic

Andy Cheung: $14,000

Here’s an interesting take. Andy Cheung, the head of operations at Chinese crypto exchange giant OKEx, has predicted bitcoin will touch $14,000 in 2020 on the heels of the first Bitcoin ETF being approved in America:

“Next year, we expect to see further expansion of global payments that do not come from legacy banking institutions. Bitcoin and other digital currencies have changed the financial landscape and shifted the way we look at all assets.

We do believe by year-end 2020, we will see a Bitcoin ETF listed in the United States. This event could be the catalyst to push Bitcoin above $14,000. One of the main drivers for this expectation is that similar ETFs have already been approved in Europe.”

Altcoin Daily: $20,000

Popular crypto YouTuber Altcoin Daily is no stranger to making bitcoin predictions. On January 4th, 2020, the pundit projected that bitcoin would outperform almost every altcoin over the following 12 months, an estimation that ended up panning out.

Accordingly, Altcoin Daily has their 2020 BTC predictions in now, and they’re as follows: while the next altcoin season might be in store 2021 or 2022, this year could see the bitcoin price hit its former all-time high of $20,000 before the halving occurs later this year.

That’s interesting, as some analysts argue that most price action will occur after the halving.

Yet whatever happens with the halving, Altcoin Daily predicts there’s a good chance bitcoin touches $20,000 before the end of the year.

Tom Lee: $25,000 by 2022

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the biggest biggest bitcoin bull on Wall Street, predicted in 2020 that BTC could hit $40,000 by EOY. That never came to fruition, but he re-calibrated in November 2020 and predicted bitcoin would hit $25,000 by 2022.

Peter Brandt: perhaps below

Classical chartist Peter Brandt has become a hit in crypto trading circles for his emotionless bitcoin charting commentary.

Last November, Brandt chimed into a Twitter thread by Tuur Demeester, a popular bitcoin analyst and founder of Adamant Capital. Demeester had pointed out that BTC was then seeming to come up against resistance at the $6,800 support level. To that, Brandt said:

“Tuur, I think a prolonged journey below the line might be needed to thoroughly prepare BTC for the move to $50,000. The bulls must first be fully purged. When no bulls can be found on Twitter, then we will have a great buy signal.”

In other words, Brandt said things might have to get ugly before they once again get pretty for bitcoin. Notably, Brandt later said in December that BTC was seemingly holding at a key support level, so a major turn below $6,800 may not happen after all.

Antoni Trenchev: $50,000

Antoni Trenchev is a co-founder of crypto lending play Nexo. In comments to Bloomberg in early January, Trenchev hailed a $50,000 bitcoin price as being possible in 2020:

“I think that, very easily, we could see bitcoin going up to $50,000 by the end of this year … The initial idea was, we’re going to pay for coffees with bitcoin. But, obviously, that has failed to materialize. The narrative, now, that is much more persuasive is that bitcoin is the new gold, and we see confirmation with the turmoil that we have this morning — bitcoin is rallying on par with gold.”

PlanB: $55,000

“The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000.” — PlanB

Pseudonymous bitcoin analyst PlanB is best known for writing on the “stock-to-flow” valuation model for bitcoin, which suggests BTC will become increasingly valuable as its scarcity grows thanks to halvings cutting block rewards. Speaking on how that $55,000 price tag could be reached, PlanB has written:

“People ask me where all the money needed for $1trn bitcoin market value would come from? My answer: silver, gold, countries with negative interest rate (Europe, Japan, US soon), countries with predatory governments (Venezuela, China, Iran, Turkey etc), billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors discovering the best performing asset of last 10 yrs.”

Tomas Salles: $80,000

Tomas Salles is a cryptocurrency analyst at popular forex trade publication FXStreet. In his 2020 bitcoin price forecast writeup, Salles analyzed previous halvings and predicted that another post-halving surge toward $80,000 would be in store for BTC this year. The bolded emphasis below are Salles’s own:

“The first of these [halvings] occurred on November 28, 2020, and reduced the original reward from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block. The value of the BTC/USD pair was 12.22 and after 368 days the value had skyrocketed an incredible 9218.67% , up to $1178 per BTC.

The second halving occurred on July 9, 2020. This halving reduced the mined reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC per block. At the time of the event, the value of the BTC/USD pair was $657.61 and after 525 days, the value of the Bitcoin rose 2938.57% to its historic high of $19800 .

A simple progression indicates that possibly in the next event the development up to the next historical maximum would require almost three years with approximate profitability of something more than 1000% and a value close to $80000 .”

Mark Yusko: $100,000

Formerly a bitcoin skeptic, Mark Yusko, the chief executive and chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, has “hyperbullish” sentiments going forward. He recently predicted that BTC could hit $100,000 by 2021 and perhaps $500,000 around 2030:

“Between now and 2021, we’re likely to see $100,000 bitcoin … B y 2025, we’re likely to see $250,000 bitcoin, and then some time out, 2030, we could see $400,000 or $500,000 bitcoin as it reaches gold equivalence … It really is about the growth mindset and focusing on the venture capital upside or the asymmetric upside of the asset at this point.”

Tim Draper: $250,000

“This is going to be so big so if you see a dip, jump in. Maybe it will dip further but boy, I made that prediction and I’m sticking to it. $250,000 by 2022 for bitcoin.” – Tim Draper.

Draper is the founder of Draper Associates and DFJ. Outside of the cryptocurrency world, Draper is largely credited with being the grandfather of viral marketing via online mediums like Hotmail, Skype, and others.

Recently, Draper doubled down on the $250,000 BTC price prediction he made in 2020, arguing to BlockTV that bitcoin should be sitting pretty in the near future.

“If you run a technical analysis, it looks like it’ll be something like six months after the halving that we will cross $250,000 per Bitcoin,” Draper said.

Cameron Winklevoss: $320,000

“So, if you look at a $100 billion market cap today, now last week it might have been more like 200, so it’s actually a buying opportunity, we think that there’s a potential appreciation of 30 to 40 times because you look at the gold market today, it’s a $7 trillion market. And so, a lot of people are starting to see that, they recognize the store of value properties. So, we think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it’s still a very underappreciated asset.” – Cameron Winklevoss.

The Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, are stars in the crypto space for their rapid rise to a net worth of more than $1 billion, largely powered by BTC gains. Cameron Winklevoss’ prediction of a

$320,000 Bitcoin assumes a 10- to 20-year timeline.

John Pfeffer: $700,000

“Bitcoin is the first viable candidate to replace gold the world has ever seen. So, if Bitcoin becomes the dominant non-sovereign store of value, it could be the new gold, or new reserve currency.” – John Pfeffer.

Although he did not give a timeline for his prediction, the Pfeffer Capital partner previously told a New York investment crowd that bitcoin’s value will exceed $700,000 if it indeed replaces gold as a store of value.

He backed up his assertion with some math: If bitcoin replaces all privately held gold bullion, or $1.6 trillion in gold, the 18 million or so bitcoin that he estimates will be in circulation at that time will be worth a bare minimum of $90,000 apiece.

Of course, Bitcoin’s value can only go up from there, which is where he came up with the $700,000 figure. Relative odds of all this happening? Pfeffer puts 8 percent on $90,000, 1 percent on $700,000.

John McAfee: $1,000,000 (sike!)

“I absolutely stand by the million-dollar [bitcoin price] prediction … It is still two and a half years away, in which two things will happen: bitcoin will continue to grow, and the US dollar and other fiat currencies will devalue.” – John McAfee.

That what the controversial software and crypto figure was saying then, but it’s not what he’s saying now. After earning infamy with the most boisterous prediction in the cryptoeconomy to date, McAfee has since said that his self-cannibalism bet was all just a ruse to spur adoption. Surprise, surprise!

A ruse to onboard new users. It worked.

Bitcoin was first. It’s an ancient technology. All know it.

Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.

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Bitcoin is our future?

Was the Model T the future of the automobile?

Bitcoin Time Traveler: $1,000,000 by 2021

One of the most popular developments in Bitcoin meme-lore has been that of the “Time Traveler.” Six years ago, Redditor u/Luka_Magnotta posted a thread in r/Bitcoin humorously claiming he had come back from the future to warn everyone of just how successful bitcoin had become by then and the various consequences that had come with that success.

The curious thing? The Time Traveler’s average price predictions were pretty much on the money until 2020. They correctly predicted BTC would hit $1,000 in 2020 and $10,000 in 2020 for example:

“I am sending this message from the year 2025. Things are looking bleak here, and some of you will carry blood on your hands … On average, every year so far, the value of Bitcoin has increased by about a factor ten. From 0.1 dollar in 2020, to 1 dollar in 2020, to 10 dollar in 2020, to 100 dollar in 2020. From now on, there’s a slight slowdown, as the value increased by a factor ten every two years, to 1,000 dollar in 2020, to 10,000 in 2020, 100,000 in 2020, and 1,000,000 in 2021.”

Conclusion

The big questions for bitcoin heading into 2020 center around 1) the halving, 2) BTC’s possible safe haven asset status, and 3) what happens if the next global recession begins.

It could end up being a huge year for the bitcoin price, or this upcoming halving could go differently from the ones in past years and BTC could have a sideways or downward run over the next 12 months depending on all kinds of political and economic factors.

In the meantime, we’ll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. Yet one thing is for sure: bitcoin is entering its second decade as a success, whatever happens from here on out.

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